Can The Oklahoma State Defense Force Kansas State To Pass?

Our guy @BradF79 on Twitter looked at some advanced metrics yesterday to see how this weekend is going to turn out, and he is finishing that off today.

Points Per Drive / Possession Success

Like the drive numbers from yesterday, these numbers are non-adjusted. PPD has been discussed often on this blog but there’s a few different varieties here. Points per value drive are calculated on possessions that begin on the offense’s own side of midfield and reach at least the opponent’s 30-yard line.  

Points per long drive are calculated on possessions that begin inside the offense’s own 20-yard line. Points per remaining drive are calculated on possessions that begin within 80 yards of the end zone.

In addition to the PPD numbers is a fairly new metric called possession success rate (PSR). Scores (touchdowns and field goals) are recorded as possession wins for the team with the ball and possession losses for the opponent.

All other results are recorded as possession losses for the team with the ball and as possession wins for the opponent.  Momentum possession wins are defined as possession wins that immediately follow another possession win (i.e. offensive score following a defensive stop, or vice versa).

Reset possession wins are defined as possession wins that immediately follow a possession loss (i.e. defensive stop following a failed offensive possession, or offensive score following a failed defensive possession).

OSU is doing fairly well on PPD.  Their 2.68 PPD number is 25th in FBS. KSU’s defensive PPD number of 2.16 is 64th. The OSU offensive PSR value of nearly 46% is 22nd in the country. KSU’s defense points per long drive is not good but their other numbers are all fairly average.

KSU has pretty similar numbers to OSU in PPD.  One advantage here is their ability on offense to score following a possession loss (reset possession success rate). 50% of the time they score after a possession loss.  

That’s 14th in FBS and a really good number. OSU defense needs to do a better job at forcing FGs or getting turnovers once an opponent reaches their 30. That points per value drive number is 84th in the country.

Offensive/Defensive Footprints

OSU is not running the ball much (at least compared to other FBS teams). 52% of standard downs, 30% on passing downs. Their pace is just above average and they’ve shown the ability (or want) to go both methodically and fast (turbo as they call it).

They, like KSU, are doing a good job at creating one-on-one situations with 83% solo tackle rate.

KSU runs. That’s what they do. 68% of the time on standard downs they run the ball. The statistic to pay attention to here though is their run rate on passing downs. Only 29% of the time do they run on passing downs, that’s less than OSU. Their pace is slow, very slow (110th out of 128).

We all know what the OSU DL brings to the table. 8% havoc rate is 9th in the country. The overall havoc rate of 18.2% is 26th. The secondary needs to do a better job of generating havoc despite their 11th ranking is pass deflections/interceptions to incompletion rate.

If there’s another team in the Big 12 with as good of DL at generating havoc as OSU, it’s KSU. 7.2% havoc rate. However the KSU DL doesn’t get as much help from their LBs or DBs.  

Opponent-Adjusted Success

We are finally looking at some opponent-adjusted play-by-play data. Much of what we see here (with some exceptions) is not too different from the unadjusted data.

OSU’s offense will be challenged the most in the run game, where they struggle anyway. Their biggest opportunities for success will be on passing downs, throwing the ball.

The KSU offense still has really good success rates when you adjust for their opponents, they are running the ball very well, but struggling a lot when passing and on passing downs.

OSU’s defense will have to get KSU into passing downs in order to let their advantage there have some affect on the outcome of the game. That means limiting yards gained on standard downs and stopping the KSU rushing attack.

Opponent-Adjusted Situational

I pointed this out last week and it’s still true this week.  OSU offense on 3rd down is incredible (4th in FBS).  Surprisingly, 2nd down seems to be their biggest weakness and I’m beginning to get concerned about their lack of ability to do much in the 3rd quarter after the opposing defense makes halftime adjustments.  

The KSU defense seems to get worse as the game goes on which matches up well with OSU’s ability to wear teams out with their width of the field, sideline to sideline screen game (that many of us hate to watch).  KSU defense has to find a way to get stops on 3rd down if they want to win.

The KSU offense is really only good in the first quarter (or has been historically). They also struggle mightily on 3rd down.

I’d really like to see the OSU defense get better defensively in the 1st and 2nd quarter instead of saving it for the 2nd half. The team is clearly bolstered by good defense in the 4th quarter (which Gundy attributes to the DL rotations) and 3rd down defense.

Special Teams

KSU’s return teams will provide the biggest challenge for OSU so far this season.  Ammendola and Sinor must continue to do what they do best.  KSU’s FG kicking has been just average, something else to watch for in a close game.

Conclusion

Unfortunately, there isn’t a crystal ball that tells us how teams will play on Saturday.  All we have is how they’ve played in the past.  Past performance is not indicative of future performance either.  

KSU is a 3 point favorite for a reason.  Most notably because the do not turn the ball over and the OSU defense has been the game changer recently coming up with turnovers that have given OSU the ball in enemy territory.  How will OSU do without those gifts?  

I try not to put too much stock in the history of this series, but the home team has had a clear advantage (except for 2010) for some years.  Whether this trend continues on Saturday I believe comes down to a few things:

• Can OSU limit success for KSU on early downs and force them into passing downs?
• Can the OSU run game get anything going against a stout KSU defense?
• Can Rudolph hit the intermediate routes accurately (and can the receivers make clean catches)?
• Can OSU limit the ability of the KSU return teams to affect the game?
• Turnovers.

Thanks for reading.  Please let me know what you think and any suggestions for the next episode.