Chuba Hubbard’s Stay-or-go NFL Decision Will Sway OSU’s 2020 Prospects

After watching Oklahoma State gag away an early 14-0 lead to Texas A&M in an eventual 24-21 loss to the Aggies on Friday night in the Texas Bowl, I had two questions.

1. What the heck did I just watch?

2. What the heck am I supposed to write?

The answer to No. 1 remains unclear. It was not pretty for OSU (or for A&M, really). The answer to No. 2 is more clear: Chuba Hubbard.

Hubbard is at the center of what figures to be the most fascinating offseason for Oklahoma State football in years, because after a record-setting year, he’s got a decision to make. Stay another year in college, get a degree and try to boost his NFL stock? Or, after grounding out 2,094 rushing yards in a single season, should he take those always-churning legs and keep them moving right to the pros?

Hubbard plays a premium position in the NFL, and if it’s one thing we know, it’s that the running back position has a short shelf life. When contemplating whether to stay or go, players often opt to go regardless of projection, with an eye toward starting that salary clock and getting to professional contract No. 2. The money lies there, though the money in contract No. 1 is certainly better than … stipends and free tuition in college.

Where Hubbard is being projected in the NFL, if he does indeed decide to skip, is not public knowledge, but sources have indicated to PFB that he’s received a grade outside the first and second rounds. For underclassmen, that typically merits advice to return and not to go, though decisions are obviously made on a case-by-case and vary dependent upon situation.

For Hubbard, though, there’s not much else to prove. He became the 32nd college football running back in the history of the sport to rush for at least 2,000 yards in a single season Friday. He was nearly a Heisman finalist. He was an All-Big 12 performer. What more could he achieve in college that he hasn’t already?

The answer to that question is a trick. Because … it’s a lot. He could win the Heisman Trophy, for instance. After starting 2019 off the radar, he was behind the eight ball from the jump as a contender. In 2020, he’d likely begin the season as a top-five contender.

He could also become a household name. College isn’t exactly the best forum to do so, but players like Joe Burrow, Zion Williamson, heck even Jonathan Taylor, have all proved it’s an improbable-but-not-impossible task. Becoming a brand in college is within reach.

Most of all for Hubbard, he could stand to benefit his own NFL stock by improving — the question is how much and if it’s worth it. If he were a projected third-rounder in 2020, could he become a first-rounder in 2021? Second-rounder in 2021? Given the position he plays, only a substantial leap next season would likely thrust him into that conversation — though it’s not to be ruled out.

Mike Gundy says there's a "really good chance" Chuba Hubbard is on his football team next year.

— Shehan Jeyarajah (@ShehanJeyarajah) December 28, 2019

The biggest detractor here is the injury risk. Running backs tear their ACLs, MCLs, ACDCs, you name it. It happens every year. Putting the NFL on hold only increases the chance that you do succumb to a devastating injury and thus lose money via draft stock. Insurance policies can be purchased by schools — and even by players themselves — to protect against such instances, but a policy in place doesn’t make a player at an injury-averse position is suddenly going to be guaranteed to have an injury-free season.

Nonetheless, OSU can dare to dream about the chance that he does return. If he does, OSU will enter 2020 with the best player in the Big 12, maybe the country. There are two, maybe three running backs in the United States you can build an offense around, and Hubbard is absolutely one of those. With Spencer Sanders back at full strength, Hubbard in the same backfield and a defense that returns a ton of starters, OSU could feasibly be considered a top-2 team in the conference entering the season next year. If the pieces fall together.

And that’s why Hubbard’s offseason decision, which is expected to be made in the coming weeks, is so potent. The drop-off in talent at running back outside Hubbard is stark. OSU has other good options, sure, but turning from Hubbard to LD Brown next season would be like trading in your Ferrari for a Honda Civic for better gas mileage. You can do it, but it’s not optimal.

If he returns, all the hyperbolic talk is no longer hyperbolic. Big 12 title hopes. CFP darkhorse contenders. The cards would be stacked in OSU’s favor with an ace sitting at the top of the deck. And if he goes, OSU’ll be fine, too. Ferrari or Civic, OSU has a rebuilding season in the rearview and an eye on making 2020 one that was worth building toward.