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Don’t Be So Sure the Cowboys are Headed to the Alamo



With the Oklahoma State Cowboys’ regular season now at an end, their postseason fate is out of their control. Many tab the Pokes as Alamo-bound for a second year. But it’s not a guarantee, and the Cowboys could find themselves in another bowl game depending on the fate of the Big 12 Championship.

If TCU were to lose against Oklahoma, that would drop them to 10-3. In the history of New Years Six bowl games, only eight three-loss teams have been selected. The Big 12 has never been one of those teams.

Conference 3-Loss Teams in NY6
Pac-12 2
Big Ten 1
Big 12 0

Additionally, three-loss teams are often selected when there are more of them in the College Football Playoff’s top 15. The two years that had the most, 2014-2015 and 2016-2017, did so because there were an unusually high amount of three-loss teams.

Year 3-Loss teams in top 15 3-loss teams in NY6
2014-15 7 3
2015-16 3 1
2016-17 7 4

Keep in mind that the current College Football Playoff rankings only have two three-loss teams in the top 15, making it unlikely that many three-loss teams will make a New Years Six bowl.

It hurts the Big 12 that the Sugar Bowl, which is contracted as Big 12 versus SEC, is a CFP semifinal game this year. If TCU does get kicked out of a New Years Six slot, that would kick down the entire Big 12 bowl slate.

The pecking order for non-NY6 Big 12 bowl selections goes Alamo, Camping World, Texas, Liberty, Cactus and Armed Forces, according to the Big 12’s website. The remainder of Big 12 teams are then left to fall to other bowls if necessary (e.g. Heart of Dallas Bowl). That means if the Camping World Bowl were to select a team other than OSU, the Cowboys could fall to the Texas Bowl in Houston and play an SEC opponent.

It’s certainly possible that TCU plays well and loses and the CFP committee puts them in a New Years Six game like the Cotton Bowl. That would likely put the Cowboys in the Alamo Bowl for a second year in a row. A number of different scenarios could play out depending on the result of conference championship week, but don’t be surprised if OSU ends up Orlando-bound.

Which bowl do you think OSU will play in? Leave your opinions in the comments below!

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