For Oklahoma State, a Path to November Exists, but Will They Take It?

Frustration is up. Interest is down. I get it. You can look at our traffic numbers on PFB every fall and pretty much tell what Oklahoma State’s football record is without knowing who they played, when they played them or what any of the scores were.

Losing to Texas Tech the week after beating Boise State stinks. Not scoring for the last 40 minutes stinks even more. Beating Kansas is a salve in the same way applying calendula to a staph infection is a salve.

As Bill Haisten astutely pointed out this week, the real road to redemption begins this weekend against Iowa State.

It’s not like Oklahoma State hasn’t been here before. I’ve been pumping this for a few weeks now, but in 2013 and 2016 Oklahoma State lost its Big 12 opener — in pretty ugly fashion in 2013, too — and went on to play for the Big 12 title. And if you think those years were different, you’re probably right, but we certainly didn’t view them differently at the time than we do this one.

OSU had its best defense of all time in 2013 when it ran the table between West Virginia and OU to end the year. It had its winningest QB ever when it did the same in 2016. It has a variation of neither this year, and yet there remains a path to at least get to a meaningful November, something OSU has done in every season except for one since 2008.

“We’re winning as a team so I can’t argue with the results,” said new starting DT Enoch Smith. “We took a loss one week, but we built on that and I’m not here for individual stats. I’m here for the team’s success and helping us get to the (College Football) Playoff and the Big 12 Championship.”

I don’t know about the CFB Playoff, but Big 12 Championship? Sure, why not.

Here’s the road …

Beat the 0-2 teams

OSU plays 0-2 Big 12 teams in each of its next two games. Iowa State at home and Kansas State on the road. Reach the bye week at 3-1 in Big 12 play and get rested up for Tommy Herman and Texas on the last week of October.

At that point either Texas or OU (or both?) will have a loss, and you’ll be (at worst) tied for third behind Texas or OU and (presumably) West Virginia. Losses to teams like Tech always feel monumental and consequential in the moment, but rarely do they upend seasons in the way they seem to.

Does this mean OSU has the goods to actually win the next two weeks? No, and I remain overly dubious, but this is supposed to be an exercise in optimism!

Beat the Texas Schools

Texas will be big. OSU has stunk at home in recent years, and you might need the tiebreaker over the Horns come December. Baylor on the road, while possibly tricky, should not be a major issue in the same way Kansas State in Manhattan shouldn’t (SHOULDN’T!) be a major issue.

If you do that, suddenly the middle and end of November once again loom large just they have in most of the Gundy era. Above all, that’s fun. Winning Big 12 titles and getting to the CFP is often a daydream, but big time games in BPS and on the road when the air flips and college football is really swaying, that’s the point of all this, right?

The Gauntlet

Now all of a sudden you’re 5-1 in the Big 12 and rolling. If you go 2-1 against OU, West Virginia and TCU, you’re probably in the Big 12 title game. Heck, you can go 1-2 and possibly get in.

In 2013, 2015, 2016 and 2017 — so four of the six years since the Big 12 moved to round robin play — a 7-2 team has finished second in the Big 12. In some ways, if you’re going to lose, losing to a team that probably won’t factor into the tiebreaker is actually a good thing.

Again, I know this all sounds like complete and utter lunacy, and maybe it is. Little about OSU’s year has screamed “Big 12 title potential!” But the majority of you (us?) would have been saying the same thing if I’d written a similar post in 2013 after OSU beat Kansas State 33-29 the week after losing in Morgantown. I would have been laughed at!

So maybe OSU finds something in the coming weeks. Maybe there’s an injury on another team or an upset here or there, and maybe OSU discovers its rhythm before getting healthy going into Texas. We’ll know a lot more after the next two weeks in two games where OSU should be favored. If they take care of those, Texas at home will make or break the Big 12 season.