Four-Year Average Recruiting Classes of Teams that Played for a National Title

I’ve done this exercise before, but a few things have changed. First, the 2017 season happened and with it came four new playoff teams. The recruiting rankings also changed slightly as Scout and 247 were merged. So we have some new recruiting data to run against teams that have played for a national championship.

I know I beat the drum of “yo, crootin wins titles” harder than maybe anybody else, but this is where we’re at with Oklahoma State. The final step for them as an organization is to recruit like a top-tier team. This is largely a good thing!

But it’s also a bad thing because the trend for the Pokes is going the wrong way. You likely don’t need me to tell you why any of this matters, but in case you were wondering if top 35 classes are going to get the job done, your answer is below.

BCS Era Four-Year Recruiting Rankings

I compiled recruiting rankings back to 2005 (Gundy’s first year). So below are all the teams that played for the BCS title from 2008-2013 along with their four-year recruiting average ranking.

Oklahoma State’s best four-year stretch in this time period is No. 27 back in 2009. That’s four spots worse than the worst team to play for a title (Oregon in 2010). The average of the average here is 8.9. Gulp. The 2011 team was No. 30 in four-year average and would have easily been the worst to play for a title in this span.

Playoff Era Four-Year Recruiting Rankings

In 2014, college football changed how it determined its champion. Four teams were allowed to play for it all, and it has somewhat opened the door to the Oklahoma States of the world (although you can be the judge of how much based on the numbers below). Here’s a look at where those teams were ranked on a four-year average in recruiting.

The average of the average here is 10.4, which means that you still, on average, need a four-year average class around the top 10 to play for it all. The worst team to do it was Michigan State in 2015. The second-worst team to do it was Washington in 2016. Those teams lost by a combined 62-7 in semifinal games.

So you can certainly make the playoff with an average four-year recruiting ranking, but you’re not going to play for a title. To make matters worse, OSU’s four-year averages of late haven’t been inside of either of those two programs.

Oklahoma State Four-Year Recruiting Rankings

???

There is some confirmation bias in here of course. Especially since the CFB Playoff committee was formed. If you don’t think that well that team recruits great so even though they lost two games they must be great is a thing that the committee thinks then you’re naive to the process. So I understand that.

But the bottom line is in the numbers. If you recruit like Oklahoma State recruits, you might eventually be one of the teams that sneaks into a playoff, but you’re probably going to get housed if you do. And the odds are overwhelmingly against you that you’ll ever play for that lipstick-looking trophy a national championship.