Iowa State Preview: Can OSU Rebound against the Rebuilding Cyclones?

The Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-4, 0-2) play host to the Iowa State Cyclones (9-4, 0-2) with both teams trying to avoid an 0-3 Big 12 start. Iowa State brings in a 10-game winning streak against OSU and has come out on top in its last four trips to Stillwater.

How To Watch/Listen

When/Where: Saturday, January 6 at 3 p.m., Gallagher-Iba Arena, Stillwater, Okla.
TV/crew: ESPNU / Doug Sherman, Bryndon Manzer
Webcast: WatchESPN
Radio: Cowboy Radio Network (Dave Hunziker and John Holcomb)
Satellite Radio: None

Oklahoma State is coming off of a 20-point Bedlam drumming in Norman and desperately needs a win. The rebuilding Cyclones might just oblige.

Iowa State ended last year with a Big 12 Tournament championship and a second-round exit in the NCAAs but is replacing its top four scorers from last season — Monte Morris, Deonte Burton, Nazareth Mitrou-Long and Matt Thomas.

Let’s look at the matchup through the lens of KenPom’s Four Factors.

Offense

These teams are fairly even from an efficiency standpoint, coming in 109.9 and 109.1 good for 63rd and 78th in adjusted offensive efficiency. Neither team plays at any type of breakneck speed tempo-wise, but both can get out in transition.

Everything runs through Nick Weiler-Babb. The junior point guard is averaging 12.3 points, 7.5 rebounds (sixth in the Big 12) and 7.2 assists per game (third in the Big 12). Most of the scoring load is shouldered by Donovan Jackson and Lindell Wiggington who average 15.7 and 15.2 points apiece.

The difference here is that Iowa State has been a lot less careless with the ball so far this year than OSU has, but Oklahoma State has been a better offensive rebounding team. If the Cowboys can secure additional possessions and not give as many away, it will bode will for Mike Boynton’s crew.

Defense

The Cowboys have been the better defensive team so far, while also being tested much more than the Cyclones. Three of OSU’s four losses have come against teams in the top 21 in adjusted offensive efficiency — Oklahoma, Wichita State and West Virginia.

Iowa State isn’t forcing a ton of turnovers and is allowing teams to shoot at a high clip, ranking dead last in opponent 3-point percentage in the Big 12 and 9th in opponent field goal percentage.

Keep an eye on: Lindell Wiggington

The freshman guard is shooting 41 percent from beyond the arc on the year but is due for a bounce-back game after going 2-for-13 from 3 in the last three games. Prior to that, Wiggington was dialed in, shooting 48 percent from deep. In OSU’s four losses, opponents shot 44 percent from 3.

Keys for OSU: Keep it clean and Clean up the glass

The Cowboys need to play the type of defense they have shown they can and force turnovers, without giving away too many possessions themselves. Before the Oklahoma game, which was out of hand for most of the second half, Oklahoma State had committed over 15 turnovers in three of the previous four outings.

Prediction

OSU comes into this one much more tested than Iowa State and is due for a win. All four of the Cowboys’ losses came against top-10 opponents, including falling to back-to-back No. 7s in West Virginia and Oklahoma. The Cyclones have yet to face a ranked opponent.

The Cowboys probably aren’t good enough or deep enough to take any team for granted but I see a Boynton’s squad righting the ship on Saturday. I’ll take the Cowboys in a close one. Something like 82-79.