Iowa State Preview: Can OSU Set a New Trend in Ames?

The Cowboys, as we’ve come to expect, followed up a signature win against a ranked opponent with a disappointing loss. Now, Oklahoma State’s last two games are against the teams in first and last place in the league, and the Cowboys have wins over both teams. Predicting anything at this point seems a bit foolish.

Here’s how you can tune into OSU’s final road game.

• When: Tuesday, Feb. 27 at 6 p.m.
• Where: James H. Hilton Coliseum, Ames, Iowa
• TV:  ESPNU
• Webcast: ESPN3.com or ESPN app
• Radio: Cowboy Radio Network (Dave Hunziker and John Holcomb)

Iowa State has dropped seven of its last eight games and owns the last place spot in the Big 12. Oklahoma State is just ahead of the Cyclones with lone possession of ninth place.

The Cowboys could pull of their first conference sweep in Ames with another, much longer, shot to do so against Kansas in Stillwater on Saturday.

As always, let’s look at this matchup through the lens of KenPom’s Four Factors.

Offense

The Cyclones rank 75th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and have struggled to put up points against the decent defenses in the league. While the Cyclones were tabbed for a rebuilding year coming in, the injury bug has taken several bites out of Steve Prohm’s roster. Iowa State is now without starters Nick Weiler-Babb and Solomon Young due to injury.

When these two teams met back in January, leading scorer Lindell Wigginton had a quiet night, going 2 for 7 and scoring just 9 points. I wouldn’t expect a performance like that again from the freshman who’s averaging 16.4 points per game.

Defense

Iowa State is the only team in the  bottom half of the Big 12 in both scoring offense and scoring defense, ranking at No. 8 in both. The Cyclones are giving up a lot of points and allowed a 96 to the Cowboys in Stillwater, they’re highest in-conference mark.

Iowa State doesn’t turn teams over and doesn’t get many steals, coming in at 275th and 293rd in turnover and steal percentage, respectively.

Keep An Eye On: Donovan Jackson

The senior guard, and second-leading scorer for Steve Prohm, missed Saturday’s loss at West Virginia for his father’s funeral. Jackson torched the Cowboys in Stillwater for a career-high 30 points, including a 6-of-8 showing from deep. Look for him to try to bounce back in a big way.

Keys for OSU: Own the glass

Iowa State has been out-rebounded in each of its last three games and by an average of -8. The Cyclones are ninth in the Big 12 rebounding margin and in maybe an overly simple stat, OSU is 12-5 when it wins the rebounding battle this season.

Basically, this team needs all the help it can get and all the shot attempts it can get — even against the 182nd-ranked scoring defense in the country.

Outlook

The Cowboys are 11-30 all-time inside the Hilton Coliseum and have lost six straight in Ames. But KenPom gives Oklahoma State a 48-percent chance of coming out of Ames with a W, which probably tells us just how rough of a year this has been for Steve Prohm and Co.

You want to say any win in Ames is a good win, even if the Cyclones are 9-6 at home this season.  For reference, last year’s team finished 12-3 at home and before that the ‘Clones hadn’t lost more than two games in Ames since the 2010-11 season.

This is probably a good of a year as any for OSU to claim an elusive win at the Hilton, and it’s one the Cowboys desperately need.