Kansas Preview: OSU’s Chances at a Win in Lawrence

The Cowboys, in desperate need of a win, head to Lawrence to play in the most unobliging arena for a team that’s desperately in need of a win. 

OSU enters Saturday on a three-game skid, fresh off of a disappointing home loss to TCU. The Pokes are exceedingly short-handed and look to break their season’s longest win drought in the Big 12 arena where wins come the hardest. Fun.

Here’s how to watch

• When: Saturday, Feb. 3 at 11 a.m.
• Where: Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence, Kansas
• TV/crew: CBS (Brad Nessler, Clark Kellogg)
• Webcast: ESPN3.com or ESPN app
• Radio: Cowboy Radio Network (Dave Hunziker and John Holcomb)
• Satellite Radio: Sirius 83, XM 83 (KU radio call)

Remember when the Rock Chalk wheels were about to fall off after KU lost consecutive regular season games for the first time in two years? Yeah, me neither. Since then Kansas is 11-2 with a 7-2 start to Big 12 play.

Bill Self has Kansas on a collision course for its 14th-straight conference title which would break the record UCLA set from 1967-79. Does an 0-5 away team have any chance of stealing what would be the biggest road win for the Cowboys in recent memory?

As always, let’s view this matchup through the lens of KenPom’s Four Factors.

Offense

The Jayhawks are KenPom’s No. 13-ranked team in adjusted offensive efficiency. They boast a plethora of skilled scorers like Devonte’ Graham, Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, Udoka Azubuike and any number of #dudes who could stress any defense.

Defense

Bill Self, who’s been a man-to-man truther since way back in his days at Oklahoma State, has incorporated some significant zone schemes (for him) this season. KU’s shift to a zone when it got into foul trouble against Kansas State stifled the Wildcats and whatever chance K-State actually had of upsetting the Jayhawks on Monday.

The problem is that, aside from a hot shooting night against an inept TCU defense, OSU is not good perimeter shooting team at 257th in 3-point percentage. It also doesn’t pose a real low-post scoring threat to get KU’s bigs in foul trouble like what happened in Manhattan.

Key for OSU: Defense

The Cowboys’ only real shot at topping KU in the Phog is to muck up the game. Be disruptive, force turnovers and hope you can keep the Jayhawks from getting into their zone sets on offense. An off shooting night from a Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, who leads the Big 12 in 3-point percentage, wouldn’t hurt either.

Kansas is shooting the 3-ball at 40.9 percent on the year but in its four losses that drops to just 30.9 percent. In those Ls, the Jayhawks averaged almost four more 3-point attempts per game than in their wins.

If OSU can make Kansas settle for the 3s that Self doesn’t want to necessarily see them take, it will have a puncher’s prayer.

Outlook

The chances of Oklahoma State winning this high-profile road game are bleak. KenPom gives OSU just a 12-percent shot to nab the unlikely upset. But — if there is a but — OSU always seems to bring its all to the Phog. And more times than not, it’s a pretty good game — free throw disparity notwithstanding.

So, if you’re not making the trip, tune in and let the Big 12 refs hear it through your TV screen. I’m sure we’ll at least be in for a good fight.