Kansas State Preview: Can OSU Give the GIA Faithful a Valentine’s Gift?

Don’t look now but Oklahoma State is just one half game behind Oklahoma and one full game behind Kansas State, the fourth placed team in the Big 12 — which just so happens to be the Cowboys’ Valentine’s Day date. A win over the Wildcats would move OSU into a tie for that No. 4 spot in the conference. Unreal.

Once solely a home winner, the Cowboys have traded hats, dropping two straight in Gallager-Iba but have taking care of Kansas and West Virginia in their houses. If the Cowboys can string together consecutive wins for the first time in two months — and first time in conference play — they will further strengthen their case for consideration come Selection Sunday.

Here’s How To Tune In

• When: Tuesday, Feb. 14 at 6 p.m.
• Where: Gallagher-Iba Arena, Stillwater, Okla.
• TV: ESPNU (Clay Matvick, Tim Welsh)
• Webcast: ESPN3.com or ESPN app
• Radio: Cowboy Radio Network (Dave Hunziker and John Holcomb)
• Satellite Radio: Sirius 132, XM 199 (OSU radio call)

K-State is looking to rebound after a nearly 20-point drumming at the hands of Texas Tech on Saturday. After putting the league on notice with four straight wins, the Wildcats have lost three of their last four. But all three of those Ls came against teams ranked in the top 15 at the time. #Big12Lyfe

At 6-6, Kansas State is winless against the current top three teams in the Big 12 but undefeated against the bottom six. Let’s hope that trend doesn’t continue on Wednesday night.

As always, we’ll look at this matchup through the lens of KenPom’s Four Factors.

Offense

The Wildcats are fresh off of their worst offensive outing this year, failing to reach 50 for the first time in the 66-47 home loss to Texas Tech. But this is still the team that dropped 86 (53 in the second half) on OSU in a performance Mike Boynton called “gutless” by ihs team.

In that game in Manhattan, it took an otherworldly (and career) performance from Barry Brown to best the Pokes 86-82. OSU gave up 38 points and over 70 percent from the field to the junior guard. Brown then strung together several more big games before going cold.

In his last five games, Brown is averaging just 7.4 points on 26.5 percent shooting and is 9.1 percent from 3. Prior to that he was scoring 17.8 per game, shooting 47.3 percent and 33 percent from 3. OSU can’t afford to let this be a get-right game for Brown or the Wildcat offense.

Defense

The Wildcats are No. 2 in the Big 12 in scoring defense, allowing 67.5 points per game and can be an opportunistic bunch. K-State is third in the Big 12 in steals and third in turnover margin, forcing 14.8 per game. By KenPom’s metric, the Wildcats ranks No. 5 nationally in steal percentage and 23rd in turnover percentage.

The Cowboys have found their touch from beyond the arc as of late, shooting 40.6 percent from 3 over the last four games. K-State allows just 32.8 percent from deep on the year but has been stretched a bit, allowing 44.1 percent from 3 in its last three losses. If OSU can keep up its hot shooting streak, I predict a fun holiday for all those orange-clad Valentines.

Keep an Eye On: Tavarius Shine

Shine came off of the bench in Morgantown after missing five games with a wrist injury. He provided the energy and defense we’ve come to expect from the versatile junior but his stroke was clearly off. He went 1 for 6 and missed both attempts from deep. If he can get back into rhythm for Valentine’s Day, it would put hearts in the eyes of Mike Boynton and could pay off down the season stretch for a Cowboy offense that seems to be gaining momentum.

Key for OSU: Clean up the offensive glass

Kansas State is dead last in the Big 12 in offensive and defensive rebounding, rebounding margin and offensive rebounding percentage allowed. That’s a weakness of the Wildcats that the Cowboys should be able to expose.

OSU, on the other hand, is second only to West Virginia in cleaning up the offensive glass, and has won the battle of the offensive boards in each of the last four games including a 13-10 advantage in the win in Morgantown.

The Cowboys have found their stroke as of late but still need these extra opportunities when they can get them. If Cam McGriff and Mitchell Solomon can do what they do best — create extra shots for their team — it will go a long way toward securing a sweeter treat than those last-minute chocolates you got her from Walgreens.

Outlook

KenPom gives the Cowboys a 60-percent chance of defending Eddie Sutton Court, and it’s a game the Cowboys need to win. It’s the last one in which those numbers favor the Cowboys the rest of the year. Of course, we’ve seen them Mike Boynton’s group defy the odds on several occasions as of late — for good and for bad. Here’s hoping for that trend to end, as well.