KenPom Update: How Does Oklahoma State Compare With Other Bubble Teams?

Oklahoma State has a real chance (!) to get into the NCAA Tournament this weekend with its second win over Kansas in as many tries. This one should theoretically be easier as the Pokes will take on the Big 12 champion Jayhawks in GIA on Saturday afternoon, but Bill Self’s team has never been swept in conference play.

It’s been interesting to watch the NCAA Tournament bubble evolve but OSU not really be a part of it. As of right now, they aren’t in anybody’s last four, and they aren’t even included in CBS Sports’ bubble teams. How is that possible? I don’t know.

There are innumerable ways to measure NCAA Tournament teams, and Kyle Boone did an interesting comparison on Wednesday to a team that everyone still has in for reasons unknown to me because Trey Young is a fascinating draw and will be great for March viewership for a sport that badly needs something positive to happen over the next few weeks.

Anyway, this is a KenPom-specific column so I wanted to look at the KenPom rankings of the teams Jerry Palm (CBS Sports) currently has on the bubble. Most of these squads he has making the tournament. Some he does not.

KenPom is simply an opponent-adjusted measurement of how efficient you are on offense and defense and thus how you might play against an opposing team. It’s imperfect (as all of these methods are), but I find it to be a good guide to this wonky sport. As you roll through it, remember that OSU’s KenPom number is currently No. 62.

These are all of Palm’s bubble teams and their KenPom ranking.

Looking at the teams that are ranked below OSU at No. 62, Palm has Utah out of the NCAA Tournament, St. Bonaventure in as a No. 10 seed, Oregon out, Providence in as a No. 12 seed and Washington out (first four out).

Again, I’m not saying Oklahoma State should be in the tournament, but it seems odd to not even be considering them among these teams. It will also be interesting to see where OSU’s KenPom ranking goes if they beat KU on Saturday. Presumably they’ll be inside the top 60 (or even 55) and at that point will be a true bubble squad.

I’ve said this for two months, but 8-10 in the Big 12 should be enough to get them into the NCAA Tournament, and yet they’re being treated as if it’s not even really going to be close! That’s worrisome for Selection Sunday next week, but again all of this is moot unless Boynton takes down Self for the second straight time.