By the Numbers: What OSU’s Impressive Rushing Debut Means for Big 12 Title Hopes

Against Tulsa in its season opener, Oklahoma State displayed the offensive firepower that we pined for all summer. Mason Rudolph was nearly perfect and his receivers looked the part. But it was the running game behind last year’s Freshman All-American Justice Hill and an experienced offensive line that kept the Golden Hurricane at bay and gave Mike Gundy confidence moving forward.

“We’re getting back on track to having balance on offense,” said Gundy. “You guys know that, for me, balance is very important. We’re developing a little bit of depth on the offensive line. We still have a year or two to get back to where we need to be, but we have good running back play.”

That Cowboy running game peeked its head out early in 2016 with the emergence of Hill and finally emerged from a four-year slumber in the back half of the season.

For multiple seasons, an empty cupboard at offensive line and misses and off-the-field issues at tailback meant the Cowboys had to try to manufacture balance with inventive play-calling and a running QB like J.W. Walsh — or just try to throw it over a defense’s head and hope your receivers win out-numbered battles.

Mike Gundy is quite happy with this new development.

“I like where they’re at right now,” Gundy confirmed. “The balance is going to be important. We’re not going to be able to go out and throw for 500 yards and rush for 75 and be able to win games. I thought, for the first game at least, our running game worked out well.”

While there was improvement a year ago, the Cowboys still finished seventh in the Big 12 in rushing offense. What can these first-game yields tell us about  the team moving forward? Let’s take a look at a running game’s debut and how useful it is in projecting season-long success.

We’ll go back as far as 2012, the last season that OSU had a 1,000-yard rusher (Joseph Randle) before last year, and the last season it finished above fifth in the Big 12 in rushing offense.

Year	Season Opener	Yards Per Carry	Year Average
2017	Tulsa	9.0	?
2016	Southeastern Louisiana	3.8	4.5
2015	Central Michigan	4.4	3.6
2014	Florida State	3.8	3.5
2013	Mississippi State	7.2	4.4
2012	Savannah State	9.4	5.4

The gaudy average from last week is a bit inflated with the two longest rushing plays in the last six years by J.D. King and LD Brown. But if we take those 71- and 73-yard plays out of the mix (we shouldn’t), the average is still 5.4 yards per carry — the best since 2013’s season opener. But how important is this one number to a teams’s success? Here’s a look at the last ten Big 12 champions.

Year	Big 12 Champion	Yards Per Carry
2016	Oklahoma	5.4
2015	Oklahoma	5.0
2014	TCU/Baylor	5.3/4.5
2013	Baylor	5.4
2012	Kansas State/Oklahoma	4.8/4.8
2011	Oklahoma State	5.4
2010	Oklahoma	3.4
2009	Texas	4.0
2008	Oklahoma	4.7
2007	Oklahoma	4.7

The answer is that yards per carry is extremely important for success at any level of football and in any league. Even in the Big 12 who most tab as a high-flying pass-first league, it’s paramount. Offenses like Art Briles’ juggernaut at Baylor were predicated on power running. In fact, only two Big 12 champions in the last 10 years averaged under 4.5 yard per attempt rushing, and those were Texas and Oklahoma back in 2009 and 2010.

So it looks like that magic number to shoot for is a 5.0 average. With the young talent competing behind an improved Justice Hill and the dynamic passing attack to spell them, there’s no reason this group can’t get it done.