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Odds to win 2011 BCS Title



It’s almost summer which means it’s almost fall which means there’s no better time to look at some of the more interesting 2011 BCS odds than right now.

Note: I’ll probably post this multiple times over the next few months, tweaking and updating as the odds change and my feelings on certain teams vacillate.

As always a + number means you must bet $100 to get that amount of $ back. So if a team is +1000 and you bet $100 you get $1000 + your original $100 back for a total of $1100. Also, to simplify it even further just knock off the last two numbers and you get the odds that that team will win it all. So if OSU is +3000 that means they’re 30-1 odds to win it all.

On to the numbers!

Oklahoma +400 – All biased affiliations aside, I think this is a really terrible value bet. Based on these numbers you’re basically saying OU is one and a half times as likely as Alabama to win the national title and three times as likely as Florida. Obviously that’s because their schedule is much easier but how often has a team in the last ten years started at #1 and gone wire-to-wire to win the title? I’ll answer that for you to save Google some disk space: twice, SC in 2005 and FSU in ’99 with Peter Warrick.

Alabama +600 – Seems unlikely with a new quarterback, no? Then again the last time Bama integrated a first year starter that ended in a national title. Plus, Nick Saban could probably win the SEC West with me at quarterback.

Florida State +800 – Again, a little lofty for a team whose star quarterback is going to be spending the Fall in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

Oregon +1000 – Back to back title appearances seems a lot more daunting when you have to go TO Stanford.

LSU +1000 – So we’re convinced Les Miles can go to Dallas (to play Oregon), Morgantown, Starkville, Tuscaloosa, Oxford, and Knoxville and not screw anything up? Really?

Stanford +1200 – This is where I’d put my money. Consider their schedule: SJSU at home (cash), at Duke (embarrassing), at Arizona (mildly tough), UCLA and CU at home (Ws), at Washington St. (WSU couldn’t beat Baylor), Washington at home (easy), at SC and Oregon St. (tough), Oregon, Cal, and ND at home (Luck’s final Heisman lap!). The toughest game of the bunch is at Corvallis, which is absolutely the Lubbock of the Pac-12.

Ohio State +1500 – I don’t even know which “writing a post on gambling on Ohio State is the most ironic thing ever!” joke to make. Let’s move on, the NCAA is going to spontaneously combust if we linger any longer. (But before we do, how is it possible they’re 14-1 to win it all and won’t even see their coach or QB until late October?!?!?!?!)

Boise State +1800 – If I didn’t put my money on Stanford I’d put it on Kellen Moore’s last stand. Oh, and Kyle Brotzman graduated, so we don’t have that to worry about that. And they get Nevada and TCU on the blue turf. This seems like a pretty good spot, no? I guess you have to be a little concerned about them running the table and being shut out from New Orleans. Which makes me think…if I made any kind of wager on them at +1800 and they went undefeated but got turned away from the title in favor of a 10-2 Ohio State I would absolutely come unglued. If gambling were legal, you know. So forget everything I just said, don’t do anything with this.

Notre Dame +2000 – Vegas makes money because people who know nothing about the sport of college football put down hard-earned money on asinine bets like this one.

South Carolina +2000 – I feel like this is where I’m supposed to remind you: THEY DON’T CURRENTLY HAVE A QUARTERBACK!

Florida +2000 – I feel like they could go 14-0 or 7-5 and I wouldn’t surprised with either.

Nebraska +2500 – Happy Valley in the middle of November is probably a step up in degree of difficulty from Ames in October…although now that I think about it, they barely escaped Ames last year. Nebraska isn’t winning the national title.

Arkansas +3000 – What’s the deal with all these teams who lost QBs to the draft with better odds than OSU, who returns arguably the second best QB in the country?

Texas +3000 – 5-7 last year, nothing solved at either QB or RB, lost their best coach to a team ahead of them on this list. Yep, totally rational that they’re 30-1 odds to win it all this year. If you even begin to think about laying cash down on this you’re absolutely out of your mind.

Oklahoma State +3000 – This feels about right, maybe just a little bit of value here, although you probably could have gotten them at like +150000 at the beginning of last year for this year. I generally don’t like to mix he emotion money carries with the emotion OSU carries as I’ve generally found it to be about as fun as drinking gasoline and subsequently trying to siphon it out of my stomach.

Texas A&M +3000 – They’re the same as OSU. Whoever wins the game in College Station will have a decently clear path with only OU and a few other speed bumps standing in the way of the national title.

Missouri + 6000 – At OU and at A&M = not even making it to November undefeated.

Auburn +7500 – Also +200 that their 2010 trophy case is empty by December.

Baylor +20000 – Heh heh.

Arizona +20000 – Arizona and Baylor having the same odds at the title seems strange. I look at both of those teams through totally different lenses.

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