OSU’s Defense — Not Offense — Is the Biggest Reason for its Lack of Overall Success in 2018

Oklahoma State has maybe not lived up to either preseason expectations or program expectations so far this season as they’ve submitted an up-and-down 5-3 record through their first eight games.

Anecdotally that’s because the offense has struggled and the defense has struggled, and both of those units have struggled about the same amount. Except … that’s not what the numbers tell us.

The numbers tell us that OSU has been good on offense — at times bad, but at times great — and pretty consistently lousy on defense. In fact, so lousy that you have to go back to 2007 to find a defense this porous during Mike Gundy’s tenure in Stillwater.

First the offense. All numbers from BCF Toys.

2018 OSU Offense

OSU’s offense, while not performing at the same insane clip as last year’s record-setting O, has statistically-speaking been as good as the 2016 offense and better than the 2015 offense. Now, I think those two — especially the 2016 one — were more consistent. And like I always preach, the margins are thin. Poor showings against Kansas State and Texas Tech don’t necessarily affect the overall numbers that much, but they helped lead to two of OSU’s three losses.

An aside: Let’s not act like OSU didn’t score just 13 points in an OT game last year in Austin. That happened! Bad offensive performances happen every season. They just got lucky at the end with a win.

Regardless, I think this is the biggest difference between this year’s team and that 2014 team. Look at how poor that 2014 team’s performance was. Some of those box scores are NSFW! And while I think Mike Yurcich deserves some criticism for his inability to adapt and Taylor Cornelius deserves some criticism for his turnover rate and inability to throw the ball deep, that pair has been … gulp … as productive thus far as Rudolph and Yurcich were for the first two years of their marriage. Overall, OSU ranks No. 19 in the country in points per drive, which is, uh, not where its defense ranks.

2018 OSU Defense

Oh my gosh, the futility! In Jim Knowles’ first year as defensive coordinator, Oklahoma State is currently fielding its least productive defense since … scrolls back … flips to before this blog was started and before Brandon Weeden played and … wow … 2007. OSU is currently 90th (!) in the country in points per drive on defense.

Certainly there have been moments, but even the games that have been considered “good” really haven’t been from a numbers perspective. Take Saturday’s game against Texas. While it’s true that OSU put Sam Ehlinger behind the 8-ball early (which helped lead to the win), they also allowed 2.7 points per drive, which is worse than their season average. Statistically speaking, OSU’s defense was worse on Saturday than what it has been all year.

Again, this is a little #fakenews because OSU put Texas in a position to pass early and conservatively succumbed late, but it’s still pretty interesting.

“A.J. and Rodarius played hard and made a lot of plays,” said Mike Gundy this week. “I mentioned that to them last night. They looked like they did last year against West Virginia, the way they competed. We were able to have success out there last year because those guys competed against a good throwing game. This was the first time I thought I’d really seen them compete like that. For whatever reason, I’m not sure. That was just my point of view.”

This was the first time I thought I’d really seen them compete like that. For whatever reason, I’m not sure. 

That seems … not good.

I think OSU has some pretty big talent on the defensive side of the ball, but they haven’t been able to put it together this season with Knowles at the helm. The reasons for that are likely multiple, but it’s also the primary thing that’s keeping OSU from being in the Big 12 title hunt as the conference calendar flips to November.