OSU’s Faces One of the Toughest Schedules Among Big 12 Teams

There is a lot to be excited for if you’re an Oklahoma State football fan. With a brand-new coaching staff led by a proven winner in Eric Morris and a brand-new roster highlighted by some of his breakout stars at North Texas among other additions, there’s plenty to keep the glass-half-full contingent satiated.

But college football is a show-me culture and even with all that is different in Stillwater, the Cowboys are garnering dark-horse status at best his offseason.

It’s a lot harder to predict year-to-year success with the advanced metrics when it’s common for half a roster to be turned over by February. In the Cowboys’ case, you’re looking at practically a new team with a whole new coaching staff. In fact, even the most dialed-in outlets like BCFToys aren’t including coaching and player changes in the projections. It’s just too hard to quantify.

But it’s the offseason and talking heads have to talk (and typing hands have to type), so let’s check in with a couple of outlets that foresee a tough road for the new-look Cowboys.

College Football News does an offseason ranking every year, and from that they extract a crude strength of schedule ranking. We’re not talking deep data analysis here. If a team is ranked 10th in their ranking, you get 10 points for facing it. So, the lowest overall score makes for the toughest schedule. This is all based on offseason projections, but — especially with the amount of turnover that’s common these days — it might be as good as anything at predicting success or, in this case, toughness of slate.

In this ranking, the Cowboys get a score of 487.5, good for 29th nationally and second among Big 12 teams behind only Colorado (431.5). For reference, in this ranking Texas Tech has the lightest schedule load with a total of 614.5. The Red Raiders are consensus favorite to win the league if you can have those in the Big 12 these days.

If you look at ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Cowboys come in with the No. 44 strength of schedule. That’s third in the league behind Arizona State (30th) and Baylor (42nd). The FPI is a more technical system which includes projecting a score above or below the average against a nameless opponent on a neutral field. So, maybe more quantitative but less predictive. It doesn’t help that the Cowboys have to face the No. 4 (Oregon) and No. 10 (Texas Tech) teams in the FPI this year.

If we look to desert, the oddsmakers are also predicting a tough go for the Cowboys, probably in large part due to that slate. Let’s look at the chief talking points on that schedule.

OSU has just two home games in the first four weeks. One is against a CFP contender in Oregon and the other against an FCS opponent in Murray State. In conference play, the Cowboys have Texas Tech at home, which is better than going to Lubbock, as well as visits from UCF, Colorado and Kansas. I think a 4-2 home finish is more than ambitious.

On the road, the Cowboys face West Virginia, Houston, Iowa State, Kansa State and Arizona State. There’s a decent chance the Cowboys are underdogs in all of those come kick time depending on how the season goes. It probably helps that OSU skips BYU and Utah in the regular season.

We haven’t even reached way-too-early status yet. But as it sits, the Cowboys are only favored in their season opener at Tulsa (Stillwater-lite) and one of six Big 12 teams with an over/under of 5.5 wins in 2026 according to BetMGM.

The Cowboys are T9th at +3000 to win the Big 12, paired with TCU according to DraftKings. Again, take all of this with a grain of salt, but in case you were wondering like I was, here’s the parsed-out odds (that Google could find) for OSU’s schedule.

Tulsa (road): 12.5-point favorite
Oregon (home): 19.5-point dog
Murray State (home): N/A
West Virginia (road): 1.5-point favorite
UCF (home): N/A
Houston (road): 13.5-point dog
Colorado (home): N/A
Iowa State (road): N/A
Kansas State (road): 19.5-point dog
Texas Tech (home): N/A
Arizona State (road): 1.5-point dog
Kansas (home): N/A

The one conference game the Pokes are favored in, would probably flip if it kicked tomorrow with no other data. If we could twist the arms of someone in Vegas, I’m not sure OSU would be favored in more than three or four of these games total, on paper.

The Big 12 eschewed an official preseason poll, but the unofficial ranking saw the Cowboys land at ninth in the league, and ESPN’s continuity table (includes FBS starts for all rostered players) that has OSU at eighth. The tough slate, along with all the unknowns of a rebuild, probably contribute to those rankings.

So, what does all of this mean when it comes to the cleats hitting the turf this fall? Not much. Arizona State finished 10th in the Pac-12 in 2023 and then won a Big 12 championship in 2024. Texas Tech was seventh in 2024 and then won it last year. The thing both teams share with Oklahoma State, is that most of their players were playing in the Big 12 for the first time when they hoisted the trophy.

I’m not quite ready to predict a trip to Arlington for OSU, but things swing fast college football — especially in this league. These projections and schedule rankings do provide some context for just how tough a slate this rebuilt roster will face with many of its best players also facing a step up in competition.