PFB Picks: Predicting Oklahoma State’s Game Against Texas Tech

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One of the games everyone had circled going into the year is finally here — Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech.

The Cowboys and Red Raiders kick at 8:30 p.m. Saturday night in Boone Pickens Stadium in what ought to be a fun one. Here’s how we see the game going.

What We’re Predicting

Uniforms: These are already out, but we made our predictions before they dropped. You get a point for the helmet color, the decal, the jersey color and the pants color.

Caleb Hawkins over/under 150 all-purpose yards: Hawkins has been killing teams on the ground and through the air of late. Across OSU’s past four games, he’s averaged 226.5 all-purpose yards a game, so this would just be a continuation of what he’d been doing on a bigger stage.

Texas Tech over/under 180 rushing yards: The Red Raiders boast the No. 4 rush offense in the Big 12, averaging 214.7 yards a game. Can OSU hold Tech below that average?

TD Parlay: You can name as many players who you think will score a touchdown (passing TDs don’t count), and you get two points for each player you name. However if you name a guy who doesn’t score a touchdown, you get no points in this section.

Score: Three points are up for grabs here: one for guessing the correct winner, one for being on the right side of the spread (OSU -3.5) and one to whichever one of us gets closest to the actual score.

Marshall Scott

Uniform: Black (Cursive)-Black-Black

Caleb Hawkins over/under 150 all-purpose yards: Under

I think Hawkins’ fingerprints are still going to be all over this game, and I don’t think he’s going to miss this total by much. But surely someone is going to make it a point to slow him down, right?

Texas Tech over/under 180 rush yards: Under

The Cowboys have only allowed more than that total twice, but both instances went way over, giving up 335 against West Virginia and 272 against Iowa State. This game gives the feeling of a lot of passing, so I think OSU can hold Tech below its average.

TD Parlay: Caleb Hawkins, Justin Bowick, Drew Mestemaker

Hawkins and Bowick feel like must-haves at this point, and I’ll add Mestemaker because in the last massive game in BPS he had the most-famous touchdown of the season with his Oregon leap.

Score: Oklahoma State 45, Texas Tech 42

I’m expecting one of those games where you don’t realize you haven’t taken a deep breath in two hours. Back and fourth, points everywhere, but in the end, Boone Pickens Stadium is too much for the tortilla throwers to overcome.

Kyle Cox

Uniform: Black (Cursive)-Black-Black

Caleb Hawkins over/under 150 all-purpose yards: Over

Texas Tech over/under 180 rush yards: Over

TD Parlay: Caleb Hawkins, Justin Bowick, Terrence Lewis

Score: Texas Tech 52, Oklahoma State 48

I will take the Raiders in a shootout. I think that Cowboys have the potential to get a win — and Tommy Castellanos still has yet to win one on the road — but the Cowboys have had a hard time putting together a clean game AND a consistent defensive effort all year.

Tyler Waldrep

Uniform: Black (Brand)-Black-Black

Caleb Hawkins over/under 150 all-purpose yards: Over

Tech has mostly held opposing backs in check this season. I don’t care. Oklahoma State has made a commitment to prioritizing getting the ball in Hawkins’ hands and the offense is humming because of it. I would be surprised to see Eric Morris move away from him this week even if things don’t look good early and Hawkins will stiff arm, hurdle and just out run guys until he breaks a big one if given enough touches.

Texas Tech over/under 180 rush yards: Over

I don’t think Oklahoma State lets QB Thomas Castellanos break 100 for the third game in a row unless he has a huge 40-plus yard run. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get 60, 70 or even more. That adds up quickly once you factor in running backs.

TD Parlay: Caleb Hawkins, Justin Bowick. Wyatt Young

Score: Oklahoma State 45, Texas Tech 38

I’m actually predicting the Cowboys move the ball well, but I’m banking on some regression in the red zone that forces Morris to kick it more than once which prompts a 2-point conversion in the second half. As for the Red Raiders, this would still be their fourth highest-point total of the season.

Scoreboard

There was a bit of controversy last week when Wyatt Young didn’t score a touchdown himself but threw for one. We don’t count Drew Mestemaker passing touchdowns but after debate, we elected to award half-points for the two (Tyler and Nathan) who predicted Young to score on their parlays.

As always, see The Reload guys’ predictions here. Here’s where we are going into the weekend (uniform points haven’t been added yet).

1. Tyler Waldrep — 57
2. Justin Southwell — 52.5
3. Nathan Gilsleider — 49
4. Kyle Cox — 47
5. Marshall Scott —  45