PFB Predictions: The Staff Gets a Season Prediction Redo at Oklahoma State’s Bye Week

Everyone deserves a second chance, especially the PFB staff.

We all had high expectations for the Cowboys in 2024. In fact, at the bye week only six weeks in, Oklahoma State, at 3-3, already has more regular-season losses than any of us predicted in August. PFB isn’t going to redo all of our predictions from the preseason, but after a disappointing start, we’re taking a mulligan. So, after a look at what OSU has left, here’s how we see the rest of the season going for the Pokes.

at BYU (5-0)
at Baylor (2-4)
Arizona State (4-1)
at TCU (3-3)
Texas Tech (5-1)
at Colorado (4-1)

Most Snaps at QB

Scott: Garret Rangel — I don’t think the entirety of OSU’s offensive woes can be put on Alan Bowman’s shoulders. I think much more of that blame belongs to OSU’s inability to get the ball moving on the ground. Regardless with where this OSU offense (and team as a whole) is at, I’m just not sure how the Pokes can keep putting their seventh-year quarterback out there. Most times an elder stateman’s advantage is ball security, but that hasn’t been the case with Bowman. He’s thrown eight interceptions this season, which is tied for the most in the Big 12. In his OSU career to this point, he has 27 touchdowns to 22 picks. In just one more game, he has thrown five more picks with the Cowboys than he did at Texas Tech. So, I think it best the Cowboys look to the future at the position, and Rangel seems to be the guy OSU is most comfortable with outside of Bowman.

Gregory: Garret Rangel — It’s not based on sources or any inside scoop, but I believe Rangel will be OSU’s guy when it returns to action against BYU next week. And before you groan, Rangel hasn’t been given a fair shot to prove what he can do. If this happens and is handled correctly, this would be the first time Rangel would be able to prepare with the No. 1s knowing he’s the guy. No three-QB rotation, no waiting on injury status, no being thrown in while down against a good defense with your offense unable to move the football. He also adds an extra run element that OSU desperately needs right now. Once the move is made, Rangel will do enough for Gundy to let him lead the Cowboys the rest of the way.

Cox: Garret Rangel — I mean if Rangel’s not the guy when the Pokes reconvene in Provo, not only will all apparent logic have been abandoned, but OSU fans might actually revolt. The interceptions are one thing, the complete inability to move the ball is another entirely. As Mike Gundy has said, OSU isn’t making wholesale offensive changes midyear. So you try someone else with a different skillset that could help you now and will (hopefully) help you in the future. Zane Flores is the only other guy, but the situation with him is unclear. Whether there’s an injury or not, OSU’s staff doesn’t seem to consider him ready to take the reins. You’ve got a long off week of practices to redistribute your reps. Give Rangel a shot.  An actual shot. See what you’ve got. It seems like the only option.

Offensive MVP

Scott: De’Zhaun Stribling — It’s a shame the OSU offense is as bad as it is right now because De’Zhaun Stribling is having himself a year. With 556 receiving yards, he ranks fourth in the Big 12. With no running game to speak of and a quarterback who keeps getting the hook, I think this will be a popular pick.

Gregory: De’Zhaun Stribling –With Ollie Gordon unable find space and a QB shuffle going on, it has to be one of OSU’s receivers emerging as the Offensive MVP. Stribling leads the Cowboys with 556 receiving yards and is tied with Brennan Presley for most receiving TDs at four. And Stribling just seems to improve every week, so as there will be games OSU is trying claw back from behind, expect some big plays from Stribling.

Cox: Brennan Presley — I’m just trying to change it up here, though I do think that getting the ball to Presley more can only help the Cowboys, especially if he can keep defenders in the middle of the field honest. Also, if there is a quarterback change, a seasoned slot receiver can be quite the security blanket. Obviously, if OSU can figure out how to open a running lane or two, I think Ollie Gordon could still be the guy, but he’s got a lot of catching up to do.

Defensive MVP

Scott: Trey Rucker — It has to be at this point. Collin Oliver is injured. Nick Martin is injured. Trey Rucker, meanwhile, ranks second nationally with 69 total tackles, and he has a pair of interceptions.

Gregory: Trey Rucker — This is the easiest thing to pick right now, especially with Collin Oliver and Nick Martin injured. Rucker already leads the team in tackles by a lot and he could be the only player to get All-Big 12 honors for OSU when the season ends.

Cox: Rucker — I mean I really want to buck the trend here as well, but it would be hard not to pick Rucker. As long as he stays healthy, it would be hard for anyone to catch him as far as production is concerned.

Newcomer of the Year

Scott: Josh Ford — It might actually end up being Isaia Glass, but offensive linemen don’t have easily digestible stats. Ford has been something OSU fans can get excited about in a season that has lately been lacking in excitement. He still has a lot of room to grow, but Ford has the tools to be a really, really good tight end for the Pokes.

Gregory: Josh Ford — I’m sticking with my original prediction here. Ford has had only one breakout game so far as a true freshman, but OSU continues to include him more and more in the game plan. It hasn’t resulted in anything yet, but there’s even a package where Ford has lined up in the backfield. He could also emerge as a safety blanket for Rangel.

Cox: Da’Wain Lofton — This is going to seem like a hot take, but I hate for the graphic to show unanimous picks. Lofton made his debut against West Virginia, and he might have been the only bright spot for the Pokes. Three targets for three catches for 73 yards with 25 YAC. His shortest catch was for 10 yards. It’s a very small sample size, but with the potential of my preseason Newcomer Pick Gavin Freeman redshirting — he was a non-medical scratch after four games — Lofton still has time to slide in and make some big plays.

Regular Season Record

Scott: 7-5 — I’m not entirely sure where all of these wins come from considering this team has looked not good (bad, some would say) in recent weeks, but I have faith that Mike Gundy will figure something out because he has a track record of doing so. Still, this would be an immensely disappointing result for a season that had so much promise. The 2017 season was viewed as somewhat of a disappointment, being the last season of the Mason Rudolph/James Washington regime. That team still finished 10-3. A 7-5 regular season finish for a team that returned basically its entire offense from a 10-4 squad is gross.

Gregory: 6-6 — Boy, that is a lot different than my 11-1 preseason prediction. We will learn a lot about the Cowboys against BYU to see if anything improved during the bye week like last year. But BYU in Provo should still be a loss. Three of OSU’s next four games are away from BPS, plus that trip to Boulder at the end. And Arizona State and Texas Tech are a lot better than expected. It’s honestly not a tough schedule, but it is when you’re playing like OSU has been. No matter what, though, Mike Gundy finds a way to keep that bowl streak alive.

Cox: 6-6 — I mean, dang. I went rooting around in the back half of OSU’s schedule looking for loose wins and there aren’t a ton of them based on the evidence we have. It’s been a wacky first half all over the Big 12. BYU, Arizona State, Colorado and Texas Tech have combined for three losses. I think OSU maybe steals one from the Sun Devils and gets the better of TCU and Baylor. That’s an even .500 and extends the bowl streak. And it might be generous. But I’ve been wrong before (see the above-linked Predictions post).

Big 12 Title Participants

Scott: Kansas State vs.  Iowa State — Farmageddon in Jerry World would sort of be an elite way to open this new-look era of the Big 12. After seeing K-State live and in person, I think the Wildcats are the best team in the conference (spoiler alert), and Iowa State boasts the league’s best defense, giving up just 10 points a game through the first three. In fact, Iowa State has given up 25 fewer total points than any other conference team to this point. These teams play the last week of the regular season in Ames, and my thoughts at this point are that they’ll travel south down I-35 and do it again in Arlington. But also keep an eye on BYU.

Gregory: Utah vs. Iowa State — That first spot could come down to the Utah-BYU game, and fortunately for the Utes, they’re at home. Iowa State also gets Kansas State at home to end the regular season in what could be a play-in game for the Big 12 championship.

Cox: Kansas State vs. BYU — While the Cowboys may have spoiled any chance they have of getting to Arlington, there is a lot of football left and several teams that will beat up on each other before this gets settled. I like what I saw from the Wildcats on both sides of the ball. The BYU game could have been an aberration and a chance for a rematch is still possible. The Cougars will have tough road games at Utah and Arizona State, but their defense seems to be pretty good, and that travels.

Big 12 Winner

Scott: Kansas State — K-State got rocked in Provo to a good BYU team, but I’m not sure the final score was totally indicative of where the two teams are at right now. K-State had a 126-yard advantage in total offense that day, but BYU scored on a 30-yard fumble recovery and a 90-yard punt return. All that is to say, I think K-State’s running game makes the Wildcats the best team in the conference and a just Big 12 winner.

Gregory: Iowa State — Matt Campbell finally does it. Iowa State will be the only Big 12 team to make the first 12-team College Football Playoff and won’t get past its first game. Tough scenes for Big 12 enthusiasts and SEC haters.

Cox: Kansas State — Give the chip to the old guard. I like Kansas State because they are a tough team with an offense that can give you fits and a defense that can stifle. Seems like a fitting way to exorcise a tough early road loss.