Cowboys – 11-3 (1-1)
Sooners – 10-3 (1-0)
Cowboys – NC State (KenPom: #42)
Sooners – Ohio (KenPom: #58)
Cowboys – Virginia Tech (KenPom: #163)
Sooners – Arkansas (KenPom: #72)
Cowboys – #19
Sooners – #53
Data nerds[table id=80 /]
Adj. efficiency – Points per 100 possessions (adjusted for quality of opponent and site of game).
Adj. tempo – Possessions per game (adjusted for schedule and pace of other team).
Effective FG % – Takes into account extra value of 3s.
Three things to watch
1. Where will the offense come from? – Oklahoma State’s offensive efficiency dropped by some 20 spots after the TCU game. This happened mostly because of the 24 turnovers (everybody in the starting lineup had at least three!) but there’s also legitimate concern over who can score. We know what Smart and Markel are going to bring, but if OSU can’t get scoring elsewhere (and I genuinely think they can) it’s going to be a looooooooooong year.
2. Push from the inside – There’s not much risk of OU killing you with the three (260th in the country in 3P%) so if you can push the ball out to their guards, you can devastate them offensively. They use two big men — Romero Osby and Amath M’Baye — each on 24% of their possessions. The Cowboys haven’t…um…been effective in the interior on defense but if they are today we can expect a mini-rout.
3. Who are we?– The Gonzaga and Kansas State games are kind of…whatever to me. If you win them, great, if you lose them but play pretty well (as OSU did) then that’s all right too. This game is different. OSU needs this game like Kobe needs a competent teammate right now. From everything I’ve read, it’s going to be a tight, bloody fight in Norman (just like the old days!) but we have the hammer, and his name is Marcus Smart.
KyPort: Cowboys 65-59
KenPom: Cowboys 62-61