Preview: Iowa State

Photo Attribution: USATSI

Vitals

Tip: 6:00 PM CST
Location: Ames, IA
TV: ESPNU
Online Stream: here
Radio: Cowboy Radio Network
Online radio: here
Announcers: Mitch Holthus and Matt Doherty
Line: Cyclones -3

Records

Cowboys – 22-6 (12-4)
Clones – 19-10 (9-7)

Best win

Cowboys – Kansas (KenPom: #6)
Clones – Kansas State (KenPom: #37)

Worst loss

Cowboys – Virginia Tech (KenPom: #159)
Clones – Texas Tech (KenPom: #255)

KenPom rank

Cowboys – #15
Clones – #45

Data nerds

[table id=104 /]

Adj. efficiency – Points per 100 possessions (adjusted for quality of opponent and site of game).
Adj. tempo – Possessions per game (adjusted for schedule and pace of other team).
Effective FG % – Takes into account extra value of 3s.

Three things to watch

1. Score – How about this: Iowa State when scoring more than 76 points – 15-3, Iowa State when scoring 76 points or fewer – 4-7. Slow the game down and you have a chance to win, let it go and it’s going to get out of hand. Oklahoma State is an elite defense — we’ve discussed this — but one thing they don’t do well is defend the three (101st in the country in this category). Iowa State is 48th in 3P% and they’ll take them at any time from any place on the court.

2. Desperation – It’s “call Joe Lunardi on the phone and beg him to keep you in his bracket” time for Iowa State these days and nothing other than winning the Big 12 tourney would look better on their resume than a late-season win over Oklahoma State. Plus they’re coming off back-to-back losses and kind of reeling right now. A reeling Iowa State squad in a must-win game at Hilton in early March does not excite me.

3. How deep are we? – The Texas game was the first time we’ve really seen Travis Ford use his entire arsenal and I thought he directed it beautifully. Everybody but Gardner got double-digit minutes (Gardner got seven) and I feel like everybody has a really good grasp of what their role is. I’m fascinated by how this is falling into place heading to March. Giddy too, giddy might be the better word.

Last time

OSU won a basketball game in Ames was…2010. See here for more on this.

Prediction

Porter: Iowa State 78-72
KenPom: Iowa State – 73-72