Preview: Kansas State

Photo Attribution: USATSI

Vitals

Tip: 12:30 PM CST
Location: Stillwater, OK
TV: Big 12 Network
Online Stream: here
Radio: Cowboy Radio Network
Online radio: here
Announcers: Mitch Holthus and Bryndon Manzer
Line: Cowboys – 5.5

Records

Cowboys – 22-7 (12-5)
Cats – 25-5 (14-3)

Best win

Cowboys – Kansas (KenPom: #5)
Cats – Florida (KenPom: #1)

Worst loss

Cowboys – Virginia Tech (KenPom: #160)
Cats – Iowa State (KenPom: #36)

KenPom rank

Cowboys – #15
Cats – #35

Data nerds

[table id=105 /]

Adj. efficiency – Points per 100 possessions (adjusted for quality of opponent and site of game).
Adj. tempo – Possessions per game (adjusted for schedule and pace of other team).
Effective FG % – Takes into account extra value of 3s.

Three things to watch

1. Need this one – The problem for OSU is this: if you lose today and OU beats TCU, you get an Iowa State team (check out Big 12 seeding here) that just torched you in (kind of) their backyard in the first round of the Big 12 tournament. Lose that and you’re suddenly on a three-game slide heading to the Dance and…then what? Take care of business today and you get Baylor in the first round — which doesn’t excite me given that they have probably one of the ten most talented teams in the country — but I’d rather have them coming off a win than Iowa State coming off our second loss.

2. Offensive production – KSU is another one of those teams that worries me — you know, the ones we talked about that have a top 25 offense (K-State is #23 according to KenPom) and a serviceable defense (#77). They’re old, they have a good coach, and they’ve only lost five times this year — four of which came to Kansas, Gonzaga, and Michigan. They beat Florida (!) and have only lost twice on the road in the Big 12. OSU is going need every last one of that 13,611 pledged to be there today.

3. Special delivery for KU – My disdain for this year’s KU team is well-documented. A win for OSU over Kansas State means Kansas gets the Big 12 title outright but that’s a small price to pay for a game OSU should absolutely win at home. The Cowboys had their worst defensive outing of the season on Wednesday in Ames (ISU scored 1.19 points per possession[1. OSU normally give up about .86 PPP.]) so I expect McGruder and Co. to be on lockdown today.

Last time

OSU had a senior night, Travis Ford tried to make out with Keiton Page in front of thousands of people. We’ll see if he tried to do the same with Phil Jurick today.

Prediction

Porter: Good guys – 77-67
KenPom: Oklahoma State – 68-61