Preview: Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State

Vitals

Time: 2:30 PM
Location: Norman, OK
TV: ESPN
Online stream: here
Radio: Cowboy Radio Network
Online radio: here
Announcers: Bob Wischusen, Danny Kanell, Maria Taylor
Line: OU -6.5

Records

Cowboys – 7-3 (5-2)
Sooners – 8-2 (6-1)

FEI Rank[1. Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) College football rating system created by Brian Fremeau based on measuring the success rate of a college football team scoring and preventing opponent scores during the non-garbage possessions of a game. Like DVOA, FEI rewards playing well against good teams, win or lose, and punishes losing to poor teams more harshly than it rewards defeating poor teams. Unlike DVOA, it is drive-based, not play-by-play based, and it is specifically engineered to measure the college game.]

Cowboys – #15
Sooners – #5

Best win

Cowboys – Tech (FEI rank: #42)
Sooners – Texas (FEI rank: #18)

Second best win

Cowboys – Iowa State (FEI rank: #47)
Sooners – Tech (FEI rank: #42)

Worst loss

Cowboys – Arizona (FEI rank: #34)
Sooners – Kansas State (FEI Rank: #4)

Strength of schedule (to date)

Cowboys – 49th
Sooners – 30th

Data nerds

[table id=60 /]

OFEI: Offensive FEI, the opponent-adjusted efficiency of the given team’s offense.
DFEI: Defensive FEI, the opponent-adjusted efficiency of the given team’s defense.
STE: Special Teams Efficiency, the scoring value earned by field goal, punt and kickoff units measured in points per average game.

Three stats

1. OSU hasn’t beaten ranked opponents in back to back weeks since 1976. Tech was ranked last week.
2. Only five humans have quarterbacked OSU to a Bedlam win since 1966.
3. Clint Chelf needs 195 yards for OSU to have three (!) 1,000-yard passers this year.

Spread

The line is heading the way of the Pokes as it opened at OU -9 and as of this morning was down to OU -6.5 at a lot of places. Bill Connelley has OU projected to win by 5.7 so I think smart money is on the Cowboys. Though I’m not sure the words “smart money” have ever been used in regard to any type of Bedlam game ever.

How worried I am (out of 10)

Three things to watch

1. How will OSU offense get it done? – So much has been made this week about the OU rush defense, which was an absolute sieve against West Virginia last week. Mike Stoops will obviously make adjustments coming into Bedlam, but I’m not totally sure he knows how he wants to defend the Pokes which put up 278 rush yards in last year’s Bedlam. Will Monken keep going with what works or will Stoops overplay the run and let Chelf have free reign of the secondary?

2. Chelf factor – I know the train is chuggin’ but Tech at home is worlds apart from Bedlam in Norman. Worlds. I think in his case ignorance might be bliss but I’m also aware that this baby could go in two vastly different directions.

3. Turnover will flip game – Let’s face it, both teams are really efficient on offense and defense. Both have above average special teams and are really well coached. This game is (as a lot of OSU’s do) going to come down to which team can create turnovers and flip the field in their favor. Not your daddy’s Bedlam, and it should be a dandy.

Predictions

Pistolsboy: (with zero confidence) 41-38 good guys
Mrs. Pistols: 48-45 OSU, because “it feels right”