Previewing the Schedule: Is West Virginia the Big 12’s Wild Card?

As we march toward the first game of the season, we are looking through Oklahoma State’s football schedule game by game to see what the future holds. Up this week: West Virginia.

Oklahoma State heads east to face West Virginia in Week 8, in the second of back-to-back road games. Mason Rudolph is 2-0 against the Mountaineers and looks to make it a perfect sweep but he’ll be facing a different counterpart than in the previous two meetings.

The last time the Cowboys went to Morgantown, they won in overtime thanks to some late-game heroics from J.W. Walsh and with less thanks to Rudolph who had one of the worst games of his career — throwing three interceptions and accounting for zero scores. Context: He threw four picks all of last season.

Oklahoma State is 4-4 against West Virginia all time and 3-2 since it joined the Big 12. Both teams should have plenty to play for when they meet they meet in late October. This could be the most underrated challenge on OSU’s schedule. Halloween weekend in Morgantown? What could go wrong?

Particulars

When: Saturday, October 28, 2017 at TBD

Where: Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium, Morgantown, West Virginia (Capacity: 60,000)

TV: TBD

Last meeting: Oklahoma State used a 3-0 win in the turnover department to build a 27-10 lead going into the fourth quarter. West Virginia made some plays late but the Cowboys made a few more to hold on and beat the Mountaineers 37-20 for Homecoming, giving Mike Gundy is 100th career victory.

Offense

The Mountaineers have to deal with some major turnover along the offensive line, losing seven linemen including All-American center Tyler Orlosky and starting left guard Adam Pankey. As far as skill positions are concerned, West Virginia will be without its two leading receivers from a year ago in Shelton Gibson and Daikiel Shorts Jr. Ka’Ruan White (brother of Kevin White) is back for his senior season and the Mountaineers have several young receivers who should be ready to take the next step this fall. At running back, Justin Crawford looks to follow up an 1,184-yard where he averaged 7.2 yards per carry. Again, that was behind one of the better offensive lines in the Big 12 — which will look completely different this fall.

The biggest question for Dana’s offense is how well Will Grier transitions to the Big 12. The former Florida QB could have gone to Columbus to play for Urban Meyer but chose Morgantown instead. Before his unceremonious benching (a year-long suspension for testing positive for PEDs), Grier was 6-0 as a starter, completing 66 percent of his passes and throwing 10 touchdowns to just three picks. I’ve always wondered what Dana’s West Virginia would look like if it actually had a real QB. We may be about to find out.

Also of note, Hologerson will relinquish his play-calling responsibilities to incoming offensive coordinator Jake Spavital. Former OSU OL coach Joe Wickline held the title last season but that was mostly in name as Holgorsen was in charge of the playbook. Wickline is back to coaching linemen exclusively. Spavital was a graduate assistant under Holgorsen at Oklahoma State in 2010 before following him to West Virginia as quarterbacks coach for two years. His most recent job was as Cal’s OC.

Defense

Tony Gibson always seems to field a decent-to-good defense but has a lot to replace up front. All three of his starting defensive linemen are gone and there is little returning in actual game inexperience. West Virginia also loses its leading tackler, linebacker Justin Arndt but will return safety Dravon Askew-Henry, Jr. who missed all of last year with an ACL injury. The secondary is a little thin in cornerback depth but is still the strength of the defense. They could struggle early.

Key Matchup

When Oklahoma State takes off for Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (apparently that’s where you fly in to get to Morgantown) for the second time in 2017 we will all know a lot more about Will Grier. Was the sample size too small at Florida? Does he possess the arm and decision-making strength to captain his squad to an extra win or two? Oklahoma State’s secondary will also have seven games under its belt with some young playmakers possibly hopefully coming into their own. If Grier spreads it around to some of his returning playmakers, can the Cowboys put up enough resistance to take the pressure off its offense in a hostile road environment?

Conclusion

This will probably be the toughest game to this point of the season. West Virginia has some questions on both sides of the ball. It’s a rebuilding year but the upside is there for another top-3 finish in the Big 12. Think about how tough an out they were with Clint Trickett and Skylar Howard behind center. Things can get dicey in Morgantown.

A lot depends on Will Grier’s viability as a starting QB. That’s what makes West Virginia the Big 12’s wild card. But I think this Oklahoma State offense puts enough on the board and the defense makes enough plays to stymie the Mountaineers.

Summer Prediction

Oklahoma State wins a tough one on the road 42-37.