Ranking the 2017-18 Big 12 Basketball Teams Using KenPom

Oklahoma State starts its basketball season on Friday, and none of us really know what to expect. The Pokes were picked by Big 12 coaches to finish 10th in the Big 12 for the 2017-18 season for the first time ever, and that could happen.

But given the volatility of college hoops and the unknown on Oklahoma State’s roster, it could go much better (or, gulp, much worse) than that.

KenPom has the preeminent statistical site in college hoops, and he laid out what he thinks will happen in 2017-18 for the Big 12. He has Kansas No. 1 (duh), West Virginia No. 2 (yes) and TCU, Baylor and OU filling in after that.

He ranks the teams by adjusted efficiency margin (AdjustedEM).

AdjEM is the difference between a team’s offensive and defensive efficiency. It’s simple subtraction. Even your dog can do it. It represents the number of points the team would be expected to outscore the average D-I team over 100 possessions and it has the advantage of being a linear measure. The difference between +31 and +28 is the same as the difference between +4 and +1. It’s three points per 100 possessions which is much easier to interpret. This measure also makes the SOS and average conference strength numbers less mysterious.

Here’s a look at the projections for Big 12 teams.

And here’s how that breaks down on offense and defense. Remember, you have to subtract defense from offense to get the AdjustedEM mark.

He also has the Cowboys last in the Big 12. The reason? He projects that OSU will not have a top 75 defense nationally, even though it might have a top 35 offense.

Last year, OSU had the No. 1 offense in the country (126 points per 100 possessions) and the No. 155 defense (103.5) so it’s easy to see where KenPom is coming from. What’s not being accounted for here is that Mike Boynton is likely going to run a different offense than Brad Underwood. I think OSU’s offensive numbers will likely be a little worse than projected and its defensive numbers will like be a little better.

Incredibly, KenPom also has Oklahoma State as the No. 50 team in the country overall going into this year, which means all 10 Big 12 teams fall in the top 50. That pretty easily makes this league the best in his eyes.

So it’s not a great year to baptize a first-year head coach dealing with a FBI scandal into the best conference in the country (although, what year is a good year to do this?)

And Oklahoma State has some work to do to overcome preseason expectations from both statisticians and coaches. We’ll keep track of these figures throughout the season to see how the Cowboys are progressing.