Roundtable: How Good, Really, Is This OSU Team?

Kyle Porter

OSU is done with the regular season. It finished 9-9 in the Big 12 but 1-7 against the top four teams. It finished No. 1 in the country in offensive efficiency but No. 123 in defensive efficiency … exactly how good do we think this team is?

Hayden Barber

Exactly good. This team has flutters of brilliance defensively, especially late in games, but frankly, this team is as good as Jawun Evans is late in the game defensively, which is normally pretty good, but often not great enough. If you look at the scoring margin in the final 10 minutes of every game since the Texas Tech win on the road that got things going, OSU is out scoring teams 301-232. That’s 69 points, or a game’s worth of points. Unfortunately for them, a lot of times against the top 4, they need that margin to be in the 70s. That just goes to show how close this team is to great.

Caleb Deck

I think they are definitely better than I expected them to be before the season and maybe slightly below what I “orange-koolaid” hoped at the top of the hype and winning streak. I made it to 4 or 5 games in person this year and it was the most fun I’ve ever had in GIA. The team actually takes care of teams it should and puts up a fight even when it’s an underdog.

Ultimately it is an incredibly successful season in my book due to fan engagement, bright young talent, a reinstilled disipline and work ethic, and the belief among team and fans that we actually CAN win any game we play against any team on a given night.

Sam Aldrich

I think they’re probably just a tad worse than their no. 19 KenPom rating.. which still makes them a really scary 7-8 seed for someone to catch in the second round. I’ll say they’re one of the 30 best teams in the country.

They hit threes, knock down free throws, hammer the offensive glass, and have one of the best point guards in the country who knows how to get buckets at the end of a game. They may or may not go far in March this year, but they’re going to be a bear to knock out.

Justin Southwell

We’ve heard all season about how stout the Big 12 is. Either the conference is overhyped or OSU is a really good team. From what I’ve seen, if everyone is playing to their potential, they are one of the best teams in the country. Easily top 20. It’s just a matter of putting it all together.

Kyle Cox

I think they are a second-tier Big 12 team. The average margin in those eight games versus the top four teams was -5.25. They were really only out of one of those games before the last couple of minutes. And that was West Virginia who they beat in M-Town. I think Brad Underwood has the talent to play with most teams in the country but he’s still dealing with a a lot of youth.

Kyle Boone

Good but not great, too reliant on strong offense which keeps them in games. But as we’ve seen against top-tier offensive teams like Kansas and Iowa State, even a strong offense can’t overcome a below average defense. I don’t think it’s a fixable thing, either. Unless Cam McGriff finds some beaver tranquilizers or Lucas N’Guessan finds 85 pounds of muscle it kind of is what it is.

Porter

The thing I like is that they are beating teams they should beat. Ford’s teams were so erratic. They would literally beat the No. 1 team in the nation one week and lose to TCU next. This team is not beating the No. 1 team in the nation, but it is beating pretty much all the teams it is supposed to beat and rolling with the ones that are better than it. It feels like you can build a 10-year program from there.

Nick Welch

I think we are a solid team, but not elite. What brings us over the top is the level of composure the team has carried and the physical fitness Underwood has stressed with his teams.

Compared to previous years, when other teams have gone on rallies, our team looks out of sorts and Ford had to call timeouts at a Scott Drew rate. Now, when the other team goes on a run, Underwood has confidence in his team’s ability to steady the ship and get a clutch bucket on the other end.

Side note: I would love to know the difference in timeout rates between Ford and Underwood. The other thing is that I really have yet to see our team tired year deep into games. We are deeper than most Ford team’s but our guys this year are much more in shape this late in the year.

Porter

What is the Big 12 Tournament and NCAA Tournament ceiling?

Southwell

“The ceiling is the roof.” -MJ

Cox

True, those eight teams are ranked by KenPom as such — No. 3., No. 9., No. 11 and No 24.

Carson Cunningham

Depending on the draw, Sweet 16 is absolutely in play (who can match the guard play of Evans, Carroll & Forte?) If it’s a great draw they could potentially make the Elite 8. Underwood has proven he can do damage in March, as well. Despite the defensive deficiencies OSU will be a tough out for anyone.

Aldrich

I think the Big 12 Tournament ceiling is the semifinals — I think this team can play with and beat Iowa State, especially after what I saw in Ames last week. However, the number one team in the country playing in their backyard awaits them in Kansas. I don’t see the Cowboys beating Kansas in Allen Fieldhouse East.

In the NCAA Tournament, I’ll go Sweet 16 as the ceiling, if they win a game in KC, capture a 7 seed, and catch the right 2 seed. Teams that they will struggle against are big, athletic and have quality depth (Looking at Arizona, Kentucky, and Louisville). If they catch a smaller, faster team with guards that isn’t so different from themselves (Villanova, Oregon)? Anything can happen when Clip/Jawun are going off at the same time. If Phil hits a few threes too, watch out.

Deck

Ford: “I’m not making excuses but if I had this team and Mike Cobbins was healthy….”

Boone

I think the B12 Tournament ceiling is low. Beating a team three times in a season is a tall task, which I’m not sure Iowa State can do. But if OSU can get past the Clones, it will play winner of KU and the Game 1 winner. In other words: Not promising on paper. NCAA Tournament is same story … I’m concerned OSU might fall to an 8 seed, which means a second round matchup would likely be a 1-seed. That’s why seeding is so important — and it might be a brutal draw in both tourneys.

Cox

Winning either of those last two would have been yuge.

Welch

It’s odd to me that we haven’t beaten Iowa State yet as I think we match up pretty well with them. I think we get to the semis and lose to KU. NCAA tourney wise, like Carson was saying, it depends on the draw. As long as we can avoid teams  with athletic bigs, I think we have a chance to surprise some teams with our guard play.

Porter

Somebody Crying Jordan Boone.

981 matchups in DI college basketball over the past 10 seasons. Teams entering the third game 2-0 are 710-271 (.72%) in the 3rd meeting.

— The Vegas Refund (@VegasRefund) March 7, 2017

Boone

So yeah, the ceiling is, in fact, the roof. Way to go Boone.

Cunningham

Lunardi has OSU as a 7 seed, would play 2 seed Louisville in second round. If OSU can make a run in Kansas City and get to a 6 seed…that would be massive.

Barber

One game each on my end. I think Sweet Sixteen is a bit of a stretch.

Boone

Remember when OSU beat Wichita State by a gazillion and we all bought Final Four tickets?

Southwell

Dang. That’s a rough stat. People have been convincing me that winning three times is almost impossible.

Porter

I think OSU can win the Big 12 Tournament. Come at me. I also think they can get to the Sweet 16 but not the Elite 8. And I think one of those things will happen.

Cox

Elite 8 or bust.

Southwell

I’m definitely excited to see Tournament Underwood working with Oklahoma State.

Cox

Final Four and we extend Undie for 15 years!

Porter

If we go to the Final Four, some poor artist is going to be trying to figure out how to turn that cursive Eddie Sutton in GIA into a cursive Brad Underwood.

Cunningham

Florida State is a 3 seed…Underwood vs. Leonard Hamilton would be chess vs. checkers.

Boone

Which team do you think has a higher NCAA Tournament ceiling, regardless of seeding — Iowa State or Oklahoma State?

Barber

OSU.

Porter

I think OSU does because it has literally the best offense in the country. Three of the last four KenPom No. 1 offenses in the country played in the Final Four. The other was Duke which lost in the first round.

Cunningham

I’m more bullish on OSU than you guys. You’re underestimating the potential of Jawun Evans going full-Tyus Edney (google him kids!).

Aldrich

Iowa State has a higher NCAA tournament ceiling. They can shoot their way into the Elite 8 if they’re hot. I’m not sure OSU has that potential.

Southwell

Is that including the blowout wins at the beginning of the season? I feel like if they were better, then they would have a better record vs the top 4 of the Big 12. It’s hard to imagine someone out of the top 4 in the Big 12 to finish in the Final Four of the big dance.

Deck

I also think OSU has a higher ceiling. Jawun in clutch settings is a whole different animal. Bedlam last year and EVERY game this year in the last 10 minutes. If he gets hot early and Phil and the others play well, we can play with anybody.

Porter

OSU could win every game in Kansas City by 30 and I would not be convinced it can play with North Carolina.

Cox

I’m definitely optimistic. But I won’t be too down with they lose in the second round, especially if they draw UNC.

Welch

I think at a certain point though to get that far, you have to some rim protectors. Off the top of my head, the last heavy guard oriented team was the 4-guard Villanova team with Allan Ray and Randy Foye and they got walloped as soon as they got into the later rounds. Also worth noting, has anyone on this roster played a game in a dome yet? Ask Buddy Hield what he thought of the domes from last year.

Barber

All year, Underwood has talked about winning. The other day he said one of his goals is to be one of the hottest teams in the nation in February and March. They’re right there. Iowa State is a good team but hasn’t won two games in the tourney since 2000. I recognize I’m backtracking a bit, but, while I don’t think it will happen, I think OSU has a better shot at winning two only because of the culture of winning, particularly winning late, that Underwood has brought in. That hasn’t been a thing for OSU maybe since Eddie.

Porter

OK, last one. How does the Big 12 Tournament play out for OSU? Predictions for tournament champion and OSU’s finish.

Cunningham

OSU loses to Kansas in KC and loses 2nd round of the Sweet 16 (if they somehow get a 6 seed I’ll say Sweet 16).

Aldrich

I think OSU loses close to Iowa State tomorrow and wins an 8/9 game in the tournament, then loses to a 1 seed. I’ve got Kansas winning it. Allen Fieldhouse East.

Cox

I hate to say it but I could see a loss to Iowa State. West Virginia wins the B12 Tournament.

Porter

OSU beats Iowa State and Kansas and loses to WVU in the finals.

Southwell

I think OSU beats Iowa State but loses to the eventual champ, Kansas. Mild heart attacks all around.

Boone

Tourney champ: Iowa State. OSU bounced early.

Cunningham

Huggy Bear!

Welch

OSU gets to semis, Kansas wins Big 12, OSU makes it to Round of 32 and falls to NCAA sleeper Florida.

Deck

OSU sneaks past Iowa State, crumbles to KU who storms to a tourney win, but we come back with some fire for the NCAA  tourney and make a run all the way to the Elite 8.

Barber

• OSU beats ISU pretty handily but plays a step behind all day against KU, which gives KU even more confidence through the Big 12.

• Loses in the second round of the NCAA tournament, which KU will probably win /: