Roundtable: Reviewing OSU’s Tournament Hopes, Boynton’s First Year

Thomas Fleming: What are everyone’s postseason predictions following last night’s victory? Are the Pokes still NIT bound?

Kyle Cox: I have a hard time buying into the Pokes winning out and I think people are a taking a Kansas team in the season finale a little too lightly. I will probably say I’m still in the NIT camp, but hopeful.

Kyle Porter: I’m in the NIT camp, for sure. This team is more unpredictable than Gundy with a shotgun after four COOPs, and Kansas hasn’t been swept in Big 12 play since the early Bush years. I can’t see OSU winning three in a row, which means I have to see them beating KU in GIA (and I don’t see that happening).

Kyle Boone: I am also going NIT. Pokes have a terrible RPI and lot of work yet to be done. They probably need to win two of their three final games and avoid being one-and-done in the Big 12 tourney to go dancing, and based off their up-and-down play all season, I think NIT is the most likely outcome.

Phillip Slavin: I’m going NIT. Even IF they beat Texas and Iowa State, their RPI isn’t going to be great. That non-conference strength of schedule is going come back to haunt them come Selection Sunday.

Nick Welch: I agree with the rest on the NIT route, OSU’s RPI and SOS aren’t amazing. The one thing however OSU does have going for them is that the NCAA panel this year is really valuing Quadrant 1 wins. That is an area OSU is definitely not lacking in.

Cox: Overall strength of schedule ranking is 25th, per SportsRef.

Slavin: Non-conference is 303.

Fleming: When the season started, Kendall Smith didn’t seem like he was going to be the savior of the 2017-2018 season. But he’s become one of the Cowboys’ best players, led all scorers yesterday and is always performing well when OSU upsets someone. Did you expect him to be such a big part of the team?

Porter: I expected him to be somewhere between the Kendall Smith who got benched and the Kendall Smith who has almost single-handedly won a few Big 12 games. In some ways, he’s turned into what we thought Jeffrey Carroll would be before the season (which I certainly did not think would be a thing I was typing in late February).

Cox: I don’t know that I expected this. My expectations were definitely lowered early in the year. This last month’s results have been a welcome surprise and OSU has needed it.

Welch: I honestly did not. Part of me foolishly thought Dawson was going to acquire more and more minutes as the season went along, but alas. I think a moment clicked with him sometime mid-season that if he didn’t take a more active role in scoring, OSU just wouldn’t be able to keep up. Can you imagine where OSU’s offense would be without him? Combining that with Shine missing several games? Man.

Boone: I was in the minority of people who saw Kendall Smith’s career highlights before OSU and was ready to call him the next Russell Westbrook. He’s nowhere near that, obviously, but I’m not all that surprised to see him mature into such a valuable piece this season

Fleming: Here’s one more player-related question — last year, people were afraid Jeffrey Carroll was headed to the NBA. But I’m not sure that same fate is in the cards. Where do you see him going from here? Drafted? G-League? Playing overseas?

Luke Garza: He’s going overseas, in my opinion. This year we really saw how much playing with Jawun helped him. He shot much better from beyond the arc last year and I think he has struggled with being the defense’s primary concern.

Cox: I think he probably lands in the second round to undrafted category. Maybe a G-League spot but I honestly think we all undersold how much playing alongside Jawun Evans and Phil Forte benefited his big junior season.

Boone: Carroll could be a prime candidate for a two-way contract. Put him in the G-league and let him develop. If he impresses, maybe he lands a few 10-day NBA contracts. He definitely has the talent to be a pro.

Slavin: I think whether Carroll ends up in the G-League or overseas is up to him. I think he could make some money overseas. If he wants a real shot at the NBA, he will likely go G-League route. If he does get drafted — which would be a surprise at this point — he is a LATE second rounder.

Fleming: What does OSU have to do to get a tourney bid in both the remaining regular season and the conference tournament?

Cox: Go 2-1, at least, and win a game in Kansas City. If they can string together back-to-back Big 12 wins for the first time all year and take care of a bad Iowa State team in a less-magic Hilton, a strong showing against KU could go a long way (win or lose).

Slavin: I agree on 2-1 and a win in KC, but I think it’s more important that they don’t lose to Texas and Iowa State than it is to beat KU. They have a KU win under their belts. I honestly think losses to Texas and Iowa State would hurt worse than another win over KU would help. Especially with how far ISU is falling and the fact that OSU would be fighting Texas for an NCAA bid.

Porter: I think just going 2-1 will get it done, regardless of what happens in KC. It would be recently unprecedented for a team to win eight games in this league (plus a good nonconference game like FSU) and get snubbed on Selection Sunday.

Welch: Just did some research, it looks like the last power conference team to make the NCAA Tournament with just seven conference wins was Villanova back in the 90-91 season, however, they only played 16 conference games season. All that to say, I agree with Cox, I think to even have a shot, OSU must reach 8 conference wins and probably win their opening round Big 12 game.

Boone: Probably need to win two of their final regular season games, and probably need one to be Kansas. And probably need to win a game in the B12 tourney.

Fleming: And finally — what would you consider a successful ending for this season? Obviously to get into the tourney, but what else? Deep NIT run? Defeating Kansas? How does that stack up with your preseason predictions? Or has it already been a successful season for Boynton’s first year?

Garza: I argue it has already been a successful season. They were predicted to finish last in the Big 12, and expectations were as low as possible. Considering the fact that you lost Forte/Evans/Dillard and still defeated three top-10 opponents, that’s pretty impressive for a rookie head coach who had to handle a bunch of off-the-court issues, as well.

Cox: I don’t know that I would consider missing the Big Dance a “success.” That being said, my expectations weren’t very high, all things considered, and this team has definitely surpassed them. I’ve seen enough to think that Mike Boynton teams are only going to get better, as long as he is a halfway decent recruiter. The guy can coach. I think he’s been playing with house money since the KU win. If he captains this group to a Tourney bid, that’s just gravy.

Porter: It’s been a successful season. Honestly, if OSU loses out but lands a big recruit, it’s still a successful season. Boynton has proven he can hang in a big boy league, now he needs to prove he can get the horses to win it in three or five years from now.

Slavin: If before the season started, I told you OSU would have four wins over ranked Big 12 teams, including two on the road, you would call that a successful season. Yes, we’d all like to make the dance, and in this day and age that’s all that matters in the eyes of the media and John Q. Public. However, I’d say that what Boynton has done in his first season as a head coach, with an underrated but inconsistent roster, has been impressive and something to feel good about, no matter where they end up in the postseason.

What are your opinions on the Cowboys’ tournament hopes? Leave your opinions in the comments below!