Texas Tech Preview: Can Oklahoma State Find a Way to Win at Home?

The Cowboys, fresh off of their first Big 12 road loss since they traveled to Lubbock nearly a month ago, welcome the Red Raiders and look to avoid the season sweep in yet another 6 p.m. weeknight contest.

Texas Tech is playing for a chance at its first-ever Big 12 title, and Oklahoma State is fighting for its postseason life.

Here’s How To Tune In

• When: Wednesday, Feb. 21 at 6 p.m.
• Where: Gallagher-Iba Arena, Stillwater, Oklahoma
• TV: ESPNU (Anish Shroff, Dino Gaudio)
• Webcast: ESPN3.com or ESPN app
• Radio: Cowboy Radio Network (Dave Hunziker and John Holcomb)
• Satellite Radio: Sirius 132, XM 199 (OSU radio call)

Texas Tech looks to rebound from a close road loss to Baylor, which snapped a seven-game win streak and loosened the Radiers’ choke hold on the Big 12 title race. The Red Raiders started this week tied with Kansas at 10-4 for the No. 1 spot in the conference.

Those top two teams will face off in Lubbock this Saturday, so the Red Raiders need a win against the Cowboys to stay even after the Jayhawks destroyed OU on Monday. I wouldn’t expect to see anything but a motivated Tech squad roll into GIA.

As always, let’s take a look at this matchup through the lens of KenPom’s Four Factors.

Offense

The 57 points Tech scored at Baylor on Saturday was its lowest total since the start of that aforementioned seven-game surge. A big reason for the falter was the absence of senior point guard Keenan Evans who left the game late in the first half and did not return.

In the event of Evans’ absence, expect freshman shooting guard Zhaire Smith to shoulder some of the scoring load. He’s averaging 10.7 points and shooting 57 percent from the field and 42 percent from 3. Also look at Jarrett Culver who had a career-high 25 points and eight rebounds against the Cowboys in the last meeting.

Defense

Chris Beard’s defense ranks No. 3 nationally in adjusted efficiency and ranks 5th in scoring defense at a Big 12-best 62.5 points per game allowed. Tech plays a stingy man scheme that uses its length to bother teams by forcing a ton of turnovers and blocking a fair amount of shots. The Red Raiders are 29th in the nation in block percentage, and led by the rangy 6-5 guard Zhaire Smith at 1.2 per game.

In Lubbock, the Cowboys held a 12-point lead at halftime, but the Red Raiders really turned the screws on OSU defensively in the second, holding the Pokes to 33 and scoring 17 points off of 11 final-frame turnovers by the Cowboys.

Keep an Eye On: Keenan Evans’ status

The senior point guard and second-leading Big 12 scorer went out in the Baylor loss with a foot injury. Yes, that same Keenan Evans that dropped a 26-piece meal with five assists, three boards and three steals on the side may not play on Wednesday.

According to Chris Beard, Evans is day-to-day and it’s just a matter of pain tolerance. If he does play, the question will be how effective he can be with the apparent toe issue. Tech may not be an elite offensive team but Evans is the engine the makes its offense run.

Key for OSU: Defend the 3

Texas Tech is far from prolific beyond the arc but showed it can heat up during that recent seven-game streak shooting 43 percent from 3, a considerable improvement from its season-long average of 36 percent. In the loss to Baylor, Tech went just 3 for 14 from deep.

Even if Evans is out or limited, Tech still has several capable perimeter shooters in Smith, transfer big man Tommy Hamilton and Brandone Francis off of the bench.

OSU is ninth in the Big 12 in 3-point shooting defense, allowing 41.6 percent in conference games. OSU can’t afford to get shot out of its own gym from the perimeter, especially with its own erratic shooters facing the league’s best 3-point defense.

Outlook

At this point, there is no reason that Oklahoma State shouldn’t be playing like its back is against the wall — because it is. There is no room for error if the Pokes want any shot at an invite to the spring dance. I’ve said that I think OSU has to at least go 3-1 in these last four to be a bubble team, but this certainly feels like a win-or-you’re-out game.

KenPom gives the Pokes just a 30-percent chance of defending that white maple of the oldest home court in college basketball. But it’s do or die for the Pokes, let’s hope we see some life.