The Final Draw: Breaking Down Drew Mestemaker, Third-Down Defense and More from OSU’s Loss to Tulsa

Welcome to the first Final Draw of the season.

Man…

Rewatching this game was supposed to be fun. Instead, it was a mind-numbing chore and one we at PFB do not recommend undertaking.

Instead of celebrating new faces as we planned back in July, let’s figure out exactly how much we should panic about. There’s plenty of obvious concerns, starting with an offensive line that looks all too familiar, but what about the things OSU did well? Can we trust anything anymore?

• Was the defense’s success on third down a mirage or more of a repeatable accomplishment?
• Is Caleb Hawkins providing false hope for the ground game?
• Player grades and insights with emphasis on who we expect to see the field more and less when the Ducks come to town

But first let’s talk about what happened to the quarterback who was supposed to save the program.

Drew Mestemaker Breakdown

I threw out the first six offensive plays when the offensive line was healthy and the final OSU drive when the football game was basically decided. In that stretch in between, when I was desperately trying to convince myself I wasn’t in some weird Groundhog Day-esque time loop where OSU football was concerned, Mestemaker went 24-of-40 for 193 yards with a touchdown and an interception. He also took two sacks and lost a fumble in this stretch.

• Shaun Torgeson, who spent time at both tackle spots, allowed pressure or contact four times.
• Left guard Johnny Dickson allowed pressure or contact twice, including the end zone interception.
• Left tackle Desmond Magiya allowed pressure or contact three times, including the sack-fumble.
• Right tackle Ashton Lepo allowed pressure or contact once.
• Running back Caleb Hawkins appeared to miss a delayed rusher on Mestemaker’s other sack, though there’s a small chance he just tried to save the play.
• Running back William Mason missed a block, and a second rusher came free on the right side completely unblocked at the same time, presumably the fault of the right tackle at the time.

There’s some overlap on these plays where multiple guys got beat. Together, these missed or failed blocks account for eight incompletions, including the pick and both of Mestemaker’s sacks.

• Receiver Chris Barnes appears to run a completely wrong route, based on how coaches addressed him after the play.
• The defender makes a nice play on the ball to break it up.
• Running back Ayo Adeyi is overthrown, but it might be intentional as it is late in the play and he’s the third or fourth read.
• Receiver Justin Bowick is overthrown.
• Receiver Terrence Lewis is just missed.
• Receiver Miles Coleman is hit high in the hands, but unable to bring it down. It felt like a worse throw, but maybe it could have been caught.
• A risky throw 35 yards downfield to Hawkins is broken up.
• A throw to receiver Wyatt Young was possibly dropped (hard to tell on film), but it felt like the defense was so well positioned that maybe it shouldn’t have even been thrown.

There’s no question that Mestemaker’s internal clock was racing due to issues the offensive line had holding up. That’s not a good enough excuse for a guy who hopes to go in the first round at some point.

Plus, even great offensive lines will get beat sometimes. As for the other incompletions, the Barnes miss isn’t on Mestemaker. Maybe ignore one or two other incompletions due to either excellent defensive play or an intentionally uncatchable ball from Mestemaker.

For now, I’m lowering my expectations of the second-year starter, but I’m not selling my stock on Mestemaker’s future just yet. If the offensive line can improve, which feels like a big if right now, then it seems like the OSU QB could cut out at least six of those incompletions and maybe both turnovers.

If he even completed 30-of-40 passes for even 230ish yards with a touchdown or two during the middle 90% of the game, then the Cowboys might have pulled off a comeback. Oregon doesn’t make for a great bounce-back opponent, so it’s likely we won’t know for sure what to make of QB1 until he faces West Virginia on Sept. 26, but for now I’m going to wait and see before reaching any big, definitive conclusions.

Result: Don’t panic, but also don’t relax. Continue to cover your eyes and white-knuckle the armrest, bench seat or couch cushion.

Was the Defense’s Success on Third Down a Mirage?