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The Final Draw: Lowlights from OSU’s Secondary, and Mestemaker Holstering the Deep Ball

A deep dive into OSU’s loss in Houston.

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[Devin Wilber/PFB]

STILLWATER — Oklahoma State’s defense spent most of the last 60 hours playing the role of punching bag. First on the field on Saturday night, then online since Oklahoma State came three points short of cementing its place in the Big 12 contenders lane.

What went wrong for that group down in Houston, and does that side of the ball deserve the blame it’s getting?

Today’s Final Draw will cover:

— Eric Morris said Oklahoma State needs to get more pressure. How close did the guys up front actually come on Saturday? And what can we learn from the standout performances?

— Oklahoma State’s coverage was shredded first on the field, second by Morris in the postgame, then by us here at PFB. What happened?

But first, Oklahoma State quarterback Drew Mestemaker has made his living airing things out this season, but the Cowboy quarterback kept his deep ball holstered for most of the night. When he did let loose, it wasn’t pretty.

Working on His Short Game?

​Mestemaker completed a season-low 20% of his 20-yard completions on Saturday night. He was much better between 10-19 yards downfield, completing 60% in that zone. However, added together, only 29% of his 34 passing attempts traveled at least 10 yards through the air.

That edges out his 27% rate of medium and deep passes thrown in the loss to Tulsa. In wins over Oregon, West Virginia and UCF, Mestemaker threw medium or longer 40, 41 and 57% of the time.

Also, it might feel like Mestemaker wasn’t slinging it out as much in general, but his 34 pass attempts were up from his showing against UCF (28 attempts) and against West Virginia (27). So this wasn’t a sample size problem.

The lack of a deep ball was particularly noticeable after the fact. Mestemaker finished 1-of-5 on those throws, and his one completion was probably his best throw of the night on this highlight-worthy 54-yard completion to Wyatt Young.

Overall, it was just another way OSU gave off shades of their performance in the opener.

Mestemaker 20-yards or more

Opponent Deep % Deep attempts
Houston 20% 5
UCF 50% 8
West Virginia 86% 7
Oregon 50% 4
Tulsa 33% 3

As disgusting as those numbers look, it’s not completely out of the ballpark with what Houston has done to other teams this season.

Houston defense 20-yards or more vs lead passer

Opponent Deep % Deep attempts
Oklahoma State 20% 5
Kansas St. 0% 3
UCF 20% 5
GA. Southern 50% 6
Texas Tech 57% 7
Oregon St. 25% 8

The drop in deep shots would be easier to overlook if it was accompanied by an uptick in the midrange, or perhaps even if those passes were close to 20 yards downfield.

Instead, Mestemaker threw only five passes in the medium range. Here’s a look at those same two charts for the midrange this season

Mestemaker 10-19 yards

Opponent Medium % Medium attempts
Houston 60% 5
UCF 75% 8
West Virginia 75% 4
Oregon 54% 13
Tulsa 40% 10

Houston defense 10-19 yards

Opponent Medium % Medium attempts
Oklahoma State 60% 5
Kansas St. 67% 6
UCF 75% 4
GA. Southern 57% 7
Texas Tech 60% 5
Oregon St. 54% 13

Together, these charts suggest Mestemaker had a relatively mundane outing both by his standards and the one set by the Cougar defense against others this fall.

It’s especially jarring to look at the total deep+medium attempts thrown at Houston this season. Kansas State and UCF attempted nine total to OSU’s 10. Texas Tech threw 12, Georgia Southern 13 and Oregon State 21.

It might feel like splitting hairs, but Mestemaker makes his money going for explosive plays. His PFF grades based on depth look like this:

Deep- 95
Medium- 90.4
Short- 63.4
Behind line of scrimmage- 67.7

​In fairness, Mestemaker’s short-game approach was almost enough to unravel Houston, but don’t be surprised if the Cowboys QB lets it rip far more against everyone else on the schedule.

Did the Cougars Thrive Under Pressure or Just Never Feel It?

The rest of this article is available on our PFB+ board, you can read it here. Don’t have a PFB+ account? Well, here’s a discount for $50 for a year (or $8 a month)

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