Three and Out: Wins against K-State Never Come Easy

The Cowboys welcome the Wildcats for a chance to stay technically alive in the Big 12 race on Saturday. Kansas State at 5-5 (3-4 in the Big 12), has not had the season most predicted and lost senior QB Jesse Ertz to injury five games in.

But as we know, the Wildcats are a tough out, regardless of who takes snaps behind center. So let’s take a look at three important numbers to watch for this Saturday afternoon.

Plus-9

At a plus-9 on the year, the Wildcats rank T12 nationally and second in the Big 12 in turnover margin. K-State has given up just 11 turnovers (seven INTs and four fumbles) and has “taken in back” 20 times. Oklahoma State also has 20 takeaways with a league-leading 15 interceptions but has been dispossessed 19 times, the worst since that forgettable 2014 season. With at least three games left, OSU is on pace for the worst turnover count since 2009.

What’s more, K-State is averaging 7.6 points scored off of turnovers and allowing an average of just 2.3. OSU is averaging 7.9 points off of turns but allowing 6.5. Kansas State is 4-1 when winning the TO battle this year. OSU is 4-0.

Basically, the Cowboys need to take care of the football because Kansas State is not prone to turning the ball over and will likely make you pay if you do.

65.3

Both teams have run the ball fairly effectively this season and both teams have also been pretty good against the run on defense.

Here’s a look at the numbers.

OSU is second in rushing offense in the Big 12 with Kansas State right behind it at third. On defense, the Wildcats are third against the run and the Cowboys are fourth.

The numbers are pretty comparable, although each team does it in a different way. Three of K-State’s top five rushers are quarterbacks and one hasn’t played in five weeks while another has only made one start.

On the other hand, Justice Hill has taken over half of Oklahoma State’s rushing attempts and paid those off for a Big 12-leading 1,198 yards and 12 TDs on 5.8 yards per carry. KSU’s leading rusher, RB Alex Barnes has 101 less carries and 600 less yards.

-2.7

As Phillip Slavin pointed out earlier this week, Oklahoma State has been outscored by 19 points in the seven matchups between each of the school’s most successful head coach. That’s an average margin of victory of 2.7 points to the Wildcats.

But if you look at the record, OSU has won five of those games including going 2-2 in Manhattan during that span. The point differential favors the Wildcats due to two big wins. In 2012, the Cowboys lost in Manhattan 44-30 and the disappointing 2014 team was blown out 48-14.

In its two wins during this span, K-State has an average margin of victory of 24 points. In OSU’s five wins, its has been just 5.8.

What does this mean? It tells us that when these two teams meet up, to bring your Rolaids if you’re an OSU fan. Wins against K-State don’t come easy.