Tournament Dreams: How Can Oklahoma State Get to the Big Dance?

Oklahoma State is in probably the wickedest league in the country, which presents both a problem and an opportunity. A problem because every night out is a bloodbath. An opportunity because it won’t take that many wins to get you into the NCAA Tournament.

The number in this league this year is probably 8 wins. A 7-11 record would be touchy depending on what happens in the Big 12 Tournament because OSU only has one good nonconference win. But 8-10 would almost certainly get it done.

There have only been three teams that have gone 8-10 or better in the current iteration of the Big 12 Conference that missed the Tournament. Here they are.

• Kansas State (8-10) in 2015, went 7-6 in nonconference
• West Virginia (9-9) in 2014, went 8-5 in nonconference
• Baylor (9-9) in 2013, went 9-4 in nonconference

These teams didn’t make the Tournament because they were lousy in the nonconference. Kansas State lost to Long Beach State and Texas Southern in 2015. WVU lost to Purdue and Virginia Tech in 2014 (they probably should have made it). Baylor lost to College of Charleston and Northwestern in 2013.

OSU went 10-3 in nonconference play this year with losses to Texas A&M, Wichita State and Arkansas and a win over FSU. With an 8-10 Big 12 record, they would end the year 18-13. This would likely be enough to propel them into March considering they play in one of the toughest conferences of the last decade. It would be similar to what the 2014 team did when they went 8-10 in the Big 12 but beat Butler, Memphis, Purdue and Colorado out of conference.

Right now, OSU is 3-5 in the Big 12, which means they somehow need to win five of their last 10 games to get to 8-10. Right now, no bracketology predictions have the Cowboys in the Tournament (although shout out to SB Nation for having them as one of the next next next four teams out).

So let’s try to get OSU to eight wins based on their remaining 10-game schedule. All data, rankings and predictions are from KenPom.com where OSU is the No. 68 team in the country (only Iowa State is lower in the Big 12 at No. 116). The KenPom prediction is what percentage chance he gives OSU of winning each game.

Can we find eight wins in there? Here’s how I’m separating the games.

“Should win” games

• Baylor at home
• Kansas State at home

If OSU doesn’t beat Baylor and Kansas State at home then all of this is moot.

“Shouldn’t win” games

• At Texas
• At TCU
• Kansas at home

Any of these three would be an absolute steal. Texas is unfortunately good at home, and TCU, despite its woeful crowd, is pretty solid, too. The season could come down to a 7-10 OSU team playing Kansas in GIA in the last weekend of the season.

How good would that be?

“No way in hell” games

• At Kansas
• At WVU

You’re fine if you lose these two. Nobody is expected to win these two. Eddie wouldn’t win these two.

“Could go either way” games

• At Iowa State
• Texas Tech at home
• TCU at home

If you’re a Tournament team, you should win those games. Sorry TCU and Texas Tech. You have solid teams, but both of you have flaws. Ames gonna Ames, but Kansas State beat them by two touchdowns there, and Tennessee just got them by three.

I think OSU’s Tournament chances hinge on these three games. I think they take care of business against Baylor and KSU at home. If you win all three of these, you’re in. If you win two of three, you have to hope you can figure out how to win one of the “shouldn’t win” games or (heaven forbid) the “no way in hell” games. If you only win one of these, you’re probably not going to make it.