Tournament Dreams: KU Win Makes March More Likely but not Inevitable

Well last week was … something, wasn’t it? OSU lost to the 7th-place team in the Big 12 at home before beating the conference favorite on the road. That means we’re more or less right back where we were a week ago, although OSU has a trump card come Selection Sunday that it hasn’t had in past years.

Last Monday I compared this team to the 2014 team that made the NCAA Tournament. That year’s team went 8-10 in conference play but had some nice nonconference wins. PFB Nate thought the more apropos comp was actually 2015.

The better comparison to this team getting in would be the 2015 team that went 18-13 and 8-10 in league. They beat basically no one out of conference that year but still got in thanks to the strength of the conference.

As much as I hate to admit when PFB Nate is right, he’s probably right. This year’s FSU win is better than any win they had in 2015, but the 18-13 record they went into the NCAA Tournament with that season is exactly where they would end up if they went 4-4 the rest of the way this regular season.

Right now, OSU is 4-6 in the Big 12 and 14-9 overall, which means they likely do need to go .500 the rest of the way to get into the NCAA Tournament at 8-10 in Big 12 play (we established that last week).  A caveat now is that you might be able to get away with 7-11 as long as you win one or two in the Big 12 Tournament because of the KU win. If KU goes on to win the league (not an inevitability, by the way), that’s a pretty big resume bullet (even if they’ve lost three times at home).

Regardless, let’s still presume 8-10 is the mark right now. No bracketology predictions have the Cowboys in the Tournament and none even have them in the first four out (which seems a little crazy). They did get some Top 25 love, though, from the man himself.

#OKState received two votes in this week's @AP_Top25 poll.

— Mark Cooper (@mark_cooperjr) February 5, 2018

Looks like it was one vote (two points) — Dick Vitale has Oklahoma State No. 24. https://t.co/jnG3Usymo0

— Mark Cooper (@mark_cooperjr) February 5, 2018

So let’s try to get OSU to eight conference wins based on their remaining 8-game schedule. All data, rankings and predictions are from KenPom.com where OSU is the No. 66 team in the country as of Monday. The KenPom prediction is what percentage chance he gives OSU of winning each game.

It should be noted that OSU had a 15 percent chance of beating KU on Saturday, so do what you will with that information. Here’s how I’m separating the games.

“Should win” games

• Baylor at home
• Kansas State at home

These are the same as they were last week. If OSU doesn’t beat Baylor and Kansas State at home then all of this is moot. They almost HAVE to win on Tuesday in GIA. The Barn should be thumping, too, following that KU victory.

“Shouldn’t win” games

• At Texas
• At TCU
• Kansas at home

KU might be playing for the Big 12 title on Saturday, March 3 in GIA. OSU will be playing for a sweep and could be playing for a NCAA Tournament berth.

/rearranges plans for March 3 weekend.

“No way in hell” games

• At WVU

I had KU on here last week so grains of salt/entire salt mines etc.

“Could go either way” games

• At Iowa State
• Texas Tech at home

The Cowboys really need that game at Iowa State. They actually really need both of these or to steal a win at TCU or Texas. Maybe the KU win is a floodgate-opener, maybe not. But the path to March is certainly a little wider than it was four days ago. OSU bought itself some time when Kendall Smith and Cam McGriff went wild in Allen Fieldhouse, and Mike Boynton’s first trip to March Madness might be just four wins away.