Trip-Ups or Trends? Which of OSU’s Warts against Arkansas Are Likely to Carry Over to Tulsa and Beyond?

Although it was far from pretty, the Cowboys earned the win over Arkansas and look forward to Tulsa hoping to cap their nonconference 3-0. While it can be easy for the glass-half-full contingency to brush off some of what we saw on Saturday, or simply chalk it up to the Cardiac Cowboys being Cardiac Cowboys, some of those blemishes could turn out to be warts, and it’s not too early to start diagnosing them.

Of course, all of this data is based on a small two-game sample size, but as the season goes on, we should be able to keep track to see which are aberrations and which grow into trends. So if I can mix metaphors one final time, let’s look at three observations from the Arkansas game and ponder whether they are simple early season trip-ups or disturbing trends.

Inability to Sustain Drives

For a team that won 10 games, the Cowboys had a hard time completing drives last season, especially over the first few. OSU finished 2023 ranked 10th in the league in third-down conversion percentage at just a hair under 39%. Unfortunately, in the early goings of 2024, there’s no evidence to indicate that they’ve figured that out. The Cowboys are on pace to fall short of even last year’s mark, currently ranked 11th, having converted just 10 of 30 third-down attempts or 33.33%.

First, some qualifiers and then some qualifies to those qualifiers (asterisks on asterisks). Although it was against an FCS team and the last place team in the SEC West, South Dakota State was pretty good on third-down defense last year, allowing just 33.5% and Arkansas returned a defense that was so-so, allowing just 37.3% but against some pretty stout offenses. All that being said, OSU lost the time of possession to both teams (by almost 13 minutes to Arkansas), and it wasn’t because the Cowboys were scoring quickly.

Against the Razorbacks on Saturday, OSU lived in third-and-long, averaging 8.5 yards to go on third down, which points to OSU’s head-scratching inability to run the ball. Mike Gundy called it like he saw it after the game, but the onus is on him and Kasey Dunn to figure out how to squeeze more than 3.2 yards per carry out of an offense that supposedly boasts the best running back and the most experienced O-line in the nation.

As far as Tulsa is concerned, the Golden Hurricane’s defense hasn’t been great at getting off the field. They rank 13th of 14 AAC teams through two games, having allowed 39.3% on third downs and gave up 8-of-16 in a loss to Arkansas State last weekend. But after them, OSU faces Utah and then Kansas State, which is probably the toughest two-game stretch on the Cowboys’ schedule. They’ll need to figure out how to sustain drives, and fast. Especially, if this next issue is to become a trend.

Big Plays for Days

We’ve been beating this drum since fall camp. We banged on it last week, and someone is going to continue to bang on it, like that creepy little toy wind-up monkey on its cymbals, until the Pokes figure out how to stop fast people in space. I pointed to it as a possible reason OSU won’t get over the hump in Arlington this year. Then the Cowboys got gashed by South Dakota State. And if anyone thought that was a result of Bryan Nardo and Co. going vanilla for an FCS opponent, that notion was tucked into Ja’Quinden Jackson’s breadbasket and toted well past the line to gain, time and time again.

In just two games, OSU has given up 15 plays more than 20 yards. That’s tied with Texas Tech for most in the Big 12. In the FBS, only Jacksonville State has allowed more through two games. For even more perspective, the Cowboys finished third from last in the nation last year in 20-plus yard plays given up and averaged 6.2 per game. OSU is averaging 7.5 with still another game before Big 12 play starts.

Marshall Scott brought up a good point about the halftime adjustments coaches made which slowed the issue down in the second half, but while we wait to witness the Cowboys stop ball carriers at the second level on a consistent basis, this big play issue is getting dangerously close to a trend.

They Are Taking It Back

To end things on a positive note, the Cowboys did win the turnover battle on Saturday and made the most out of those takeaways. The Cowboys scored 10 points off three Razorback turnovers (which doesn’t even include the eight the Cowboys got from recovering the muffed punt) and didn’t give up any on their single giveaway. It’s a huge reason the Cowboys were able to dig out of that hole. Through two games, their average turnover margin ranks second in the league at +1.5 per game after going 1-0 against South Dakota State.

OSU was good, not great at in TO margin last year, ranking sixth at an average +0.14 per game. But it was especially ugly early on while the Cowboys played musical chairs at quarterback and running back. So maybe this is the start of a positive trend. There is some discussion among stat heads as to how much forcing turnovers can actually be a quantifiable skill or if it is mostly up to chance. But if we can agree on some anectodical evidence, I can say that most of the best OSU defenses I’ve watched and covered have had a knack for dispossessing the other team. And while the Cowboys work on some of these early season warts, a couple of footballs bouncing their way could go a long way.