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U.S. Open Odds

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We did this for the Masters and had a lot of fun with it so I thought we should revisit for the U.S. Open with a little breakdown on how each OSU alumnus (or current student) might play.

As a starting point, +1000 means you have to bet $100 to win $1,000 back plus your original bet for a total of $1,100.

Field +800 – This means any golfer that’s not listed among the favorites (the worst of whom is +50000 to win it). I suppose sports books do this so nobody gets murdered when one of their employees hands out 9,000,000 to 1 odds on an amateur or club pro or wild card who comes out of nowhere to win the thing.

The favorites
Luke Donald +1000
Lee Westwood +1000
Phil Mickelson +1000

Thoughts: Considering Lefty has finished second at the U.S. five times you’re at least probably going to feel the rush on Sunday that you could feasibly cash in. Of course he’s also never won so I’m not sure how that’s going to play out for you.

The “we don’t know what to do with him after that 4th round at Augusta” semi-favorite
Rory McIlroy +1200

Thoughts: Not sure that he can recover this quickly from that historical collapse at the Masters. Plus, you’d never gamble again if he led by four or five going into Sunday here and collapsed all over again.

The “these guys are due for a major” group
KJ Choi +2000
Dustin Johnson +2500
Matt Kuchar +2500
Hunter Mahan +2500
Bubba Watson +3000

Thoughts: At some point over the next two years you have to think at least one of these guys is going to win at least one of the majors. Mahan has played the AT&T National, which is normally held at Congressional Country Club (site of this year’s Open) three times. He finished eighth in 2007, twelfth in 2008, and second in 2009, one stroke behind Tiger’s -13. He plays the course really well (obviously) and wouldn’t be a bad value pick for this week even though I’d rather get him at around +3000. Of course he also looks like he’s been living in a cave the last six months and just made the single weirdest video of all-time so I don’t know what to tell you.

The defending champ
Graeme McDowell +4000

Thoughts: It’s still strange to me that our four current major winners are Graeme McDowell, Charl Schwartzel, Martin Kaymer, and Louis Oosthuizen. There’s not a sports fan alive who can correctly spell those four names without the aid of Google.

Three guys I like and Sergio
David Toms +4000
Sergio Garcia +4000
Brandt Snedeker +4000
Jason Day +4000

Thoughts: Toms has been hot lately, winning The Colonial and finishing second at the Players Championship but I don’t really see him putting it together for four straight days in the stifling Washington D.C. heat. I really like Day at this value though.

Only if they get really hot
Charl Schwartzel +5000
Adam Scott +5000
Aaron Baddeley +6000
Rickie Fowler +6000
Zach Johnson +6000

Thoughts: The last three years Fowler has gone T60, cut, DNP in the U.S. Open so try to not let your love for him outweigh the fact that he doesn’t perform well in this event historically (and yes I know the sample size is small). The problem for young Rick is that he’s not particularly adept at hitting fairways (currently 148th on Tour) and the U.S. Open does not treat kindly golfers who don’t hit fairways well. In the last decade only Tiger and Angel Cabrera have been less accurate drivers and still won this tournament.

The long shots
Camilo Villegas +10000
Anthony Kim +10000
Bo Van Pelt +10000

Thoughts: Van Pelt feels like a good value here and I’m not just saying that because I’m a total homer, even though I am. He drives it well, hits a ton of greens in regulation, and has four Top 20 finishes this year including T8 at the Masters and 3rd at The Colonial. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in on of the final few groups on Sunday afternoon.

The really really really long shot
Peter Uihlein +30000

Thoughts: The last amateur to win the U.S. Open was Johnny Goodman in 1932, Bobby Jones won it four times before that. They’d make a movie about this tournament if Uihlein pulled it off.

If I have to go with an OSU guy I’m laying cash on Van Pelt, it feels like he’s going to play well this weekend, plus he’s one of the only OSU guys who’s actually been practicing. Overall though, I’m picking Kuchar. I picked him for the Masters and I’m going to keep picking him until he actually wins one. In-depth analysis as you’ve undoubtedly come to expect from PFB.

Enjoy the golf this weekend, should be a blast.

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