Upgrade or Downgrade: Comparing Oklahoma State’s 2018 Roster to 2017

Oklahoma State coach Mike Boynton has hit the overhaul button in the second year of his tenure. After winning 21 games and narrowly missing the NCAA Tournament, he’s lost six of 12 players that were on last year’s roster either due to graduation or transfer, and reeled in a recruiting class that has everything from high school seniors to prep players to graduate transfers to account for the losses.

The big question entering 2018 now, unlike last year, isn’t whether or not Boynton can plug holes like a sailor (he can) or whether he can win as a head coach (see Kansas sweep). It’s about whether the roster turnover this offseason will be to OSU’s benefit or  detriment in Year Two of the Boynton era.

So to answer that question, let’s take a look and compare the 2017 roster to the projected 2018 roster to determine, position by position, if the roster has been upgraded. (Note: 2017 roster and positional data taken by KenPom depth chart data over the final five games of the season.)

Point guard: Replacing Kendall Smith as PG1 in 2018 will be Miami (Oh.) transfer Michael Weathers, a do-it-all player who has impressed behind the scenes during his transfer year. It’s hard to say the starting role is either an upgrade or downgrade, if only because we don’t yet know what Weathers can bring. But replacing Brandon Averette with grad transfer Mike Cunningham and soon-to-be freshman Isaac Likekele is a definite upgrade. So on the whole, point guard is trending up in 2018. And I’m secretly all-in on Weathers as a lead guard.

Verdict: 

Shooting guard: Gone is Tavarius Shine, but back is Lindy Waters, who played big minutes as a sophomore last season and is plug-and-play as a starter in 2018. Who plays alongside him (or behind him) at shooting guard will be tricky, but Cunningham can play off the ball, and Dziagwa will have another year of experience under his belt. Either way, I think this is a positional downgrade – only because it’s essentially the same cast minus Shine. When Curtis Jones becomes eligible at the mid-year, though, I’ll reconsider that position.

Verdict: 

Small forward: Jeff Carroll is gone, but Waters, who played at shooting guard and small forward, could potentially be a multi-positional fit again in 2018. According to KenPom, he played 37% of lineups at small forward, and 23% at shooting guard. So he could be the plug-and-play starter to replace Carroll at small forward, not Shine at shooting guard. Regardless, this position won’t be the same strength it was last season. I can see 2018 signee Maurice Calloo playing on the perimeter as a bit player here, with McGriff perhaps splitting time, too, but who starts is a bit of a question mark. I think there’s some flexibility for OSU at this position, but the structure of the lineups could vary pretty greatly in the opening weeks of the season. Duncan DeMuth could get some run here, too.

Verdict: 

Power forward: KenPom’s roster data says McGriff played 60% of OSU’s lineups over the final five games at power forward, despite his 6-foot-7 frame. If that trend continues in 2018, he’ll be the starter, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see him slide down to replace Carroll on the wing. Candidates to play at power forward outside McGriff include the aforementioned Calloo, as well as 2018 signees Yor Anei and Duncan DeMuth. Not a downgrade or an upgrade, per se, because this wasn’t OSU’s strongest position in 2017. But I’ll roll with a slight downgrade just because of the unknown. There’s opportunity for this to be a position of major strength if the youngsters impress.

Verdict: 

Center: No matter your feelings on Mitchell Solomon, his abilities as a defensive stopper and glue guy were invaluable to Oklahoma State in 2017. Replacing him will be impossible. Adding insult to injury: projected 2018 starter Yankuba Sima turned pro this offseason, leaving OSU scrapping for answers with only Lucas N’Guessan the only returning player at the position with experience. 2018 signees Yor Anei and Kentrevious Jones will likely compete for time alongside N’Guessan, but this position is being downgraded in 2018.

Verdict: