Why OSU Will Win / Why OSU Will Lose: Texas

It’s here; the four-game stretch of the schedule all Oklahoma State fans have been dreading. It’s the make or break third of OSU’s schedule and one very few fans and experts believed the Cowboys would make it through unscathed.

With a 1 already in the loss column, OSU’s margin of error is essentially zero. They could still make the Big 12 title game with another loss, but it’s going to depend on where the loss happens, and likely some tie-breaker scenarios.

With all of that in mind, it’s time to introduce a new series. A look at the reasons Oklahoma State will win this week’s matchup and why they’re just as likely to finish with a loss.

Why Oklahoma State Will Win

Big Plays

OSU has made a living this year on big scoring plays. Deep passing plays from Rudolph to Washington, to Johnson, to McCleskey, etc…

Texas meanwhile has made a habit of giving up big scoring plays. It started at the beginning of the season, when the Longhorns allowed Maryland to score on a 46-yard pass and a 40-yard run. It continued two weeks later when USC scored on a 56-yard touchdown pass. Kansas State scored on an 82-yard TD throw, and OU had two touchdown passes for more than 50 yards.

That included the game winner.

Texas takes the lead. OU takes it back.

Red River has NOT disappointed. pic.twitter.com/Ge1NnOgpje

— ESPN (@espn) October 14, 2017

It’s a problem Texas is aware of, but has shown no sign of being able to curb. I don’t expect it to be a problem they solve this week against an OSU team that’s had a scoring play of at least 66 yards against every team except Texas Tech (go figure).

Strength vs. Weakness

Oklahoma State currently has the No. 1 passing offense in the country at 411.2 yards a game. Texas currently has the 108th ranked passing defense giving up 214 yards a game and mind you, they gave up 344 yards through the air to OU.

Combine that with the talent at wide receiver for OSU and Texas’ habit of giving up big plays through the air and OSU could put on another air-raid performance.

Mike Gundy Owns Austin

Only #okstate (2010, 2011, 2013, 2015) and Notre Dame (1913, 1915, 1952, 1996) have ever won four straight games over Texas in Austin.

— Pistols Firing (@pistolsguys) October 17, 2017

Think about that for a second; only one other team has ever won four-straight in Austin and those came over an 83-year span. OSU did it four times in six years. I don’t care how down Texas has been, that’s even more impressive than the nine-straight over Texas Tech (burn No. 2).

Gundy Owns New Big 12 Coaches

With Mike Gundy facing three first-time Big 12 head coaches this season, I started to wonder what his record was against new faces. During his 12 1/2 year stint at the helm of OSU, he’s seen a lot of them.

Counting this year’s win over Baylor and Matt Rhule, Gundy’s record is 12-3 against head coaches in their first season in the Big 12.

Also, can we just appreciate for one minute that the Big 12 has seen at least 15 new head coaches in the time since Gundy took over OSU.

Why Oklahoma State Will Lose

Texas’ Run Defense

While Texas’ pass defense is suspect, the run defense is another matter. Texas hasn’t allowed a running back to go over 100 yards in a game since week one against Maryland.

OSU’s run game is much approved over years past, averaging 199 yards a game. But let’s not get too excited.

Take the Baylor game for example. OSU had 276 yards and averaged 7.3 yards per carry. But, take away Justice Hill’s 79-yarder and the Oil Baron’s 40-yarder and OSU totaled 157 yards and averaged 4.36 yards a carry. That was against Baylor. Texas is not Baylor.

We saw what happened when TCU held OSU’s run game in check. If Texas is able to do the same, it could be a long and frustrating game.

Running quarterbacks

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It’s a truth all OSU fans know: The Cowboys aren’t good against running quarterbacks. Blake Bell, everyone who plays quarterback for Kansas State, etc… OSU has trouble with quarterbacks who can run. It’s nothing to be ashamed of. Alabama and Nick Saban have troubles with mobile QBs (see: Johnny Manziel, Deshaun Watson), so it’s not like the Cowboys are alone on an island here.

Ehlinger has proven that he is a capable and willing runner, currently leading the team in rushing yards. Yes Texas has offensive line issues. While that should benefit the OSU defensive line, when a quarterback is mobile, he’s harder to bring down. Add elusiveness and an ability to extend plays, and Ehlinger could cause real problems for the Cowboys.

Strength vs. Strength

I’m of the opinion when an offense is good at something an opposing defense is good at stopping, it usually favors the defense, especially when that defense has superior athleticism.

In this case, that’s third downs. Right now, Oklahoma State has the second-highest third-down completion percentage at 54.8. Texas meanwhile, is No. 6 in the nation at third-down defense, holding teams to just 26.6 percent.

While OSU can score on the big plays against Texas, if the Cowboys are forced into long drives, a decreased ability to convert third downs could prove costly.