Why OSU Will Win / Why OSU Will Lose: West Virginia

One down, three (really five) more to go. OSU is still in the early stages of their most difficult four-game stretch of the season. A four-game stretch that looks even more difficult now that Iowa State is playing real football and throttling teams like Texas Tech on the road.

But before we get to Ames, the Cowboys have to travel up to moonshine country to take on a dangerous Mountaineer team in Morgantown. Let’s break down the  reasons Oklahoma State will win this week’s matchup, and why they’re just as likely to finish with a loss.

Why Oklahoma State Will Win

OSU’s Run Defense

Oklahoma State’s defense proved against Texas that it has improved at stopping the run. Yes, I know Texas has major issues on the offensive line and that it’s run game has been mediocre so far this season. It’s currently ranked 75th in the country at 151.4 yards per game.

However, West Virginia isn’t exactly pounding it out on the ground either. They currently rank 53rd with 175 yards per game on the ground.

West Virginia’s strength is their passing game, no doubt. But Texas showed last week what happens when you make any offense one dimensional. They just couldn’t take advantage of it enough to win. OSU on the other hand has an offense and defense that can.

Actually, if you want to know the sneaky truth, OSU has been good against the run all year. So far they’ve held all but one team (Baylor) under their yard-per-carry average and two teams (Baylor, TCU) under their per-game average.

The Texas game wasn’t a fluke. OSU’s run defense is sound, and its best performances have all come on the road. If that trend continues this weekend, OSU has a great shot to win.

WVU’s Run Defense

While OSU’s run defense has been good this season, West Virginia’s has been… not so good.

The Mountaineers currently rank 100th in the nation at stopping the run, which is good for 9th in the Big 12. This is a defense that allowed Kansas, currently ranked 110th in the nation at running the ball with 120.6 yards per game, to rack up 367 yards and average 7.3 yards per carry.

West Virginia is likely going to try to stop OSU’s offense the same way Texas and TCU did. The problem? They’re already bad at stopping the run when they try. If I’m Justice Hill I’m already salivating.

Up-Down Inconsistencies

Let’s be honest, OSU has been consistently inconsistent this season. Special team issues, penalties at inopportune times, costly turnovers. The thing is, against bad teams they didn’t hurt. Against TCU they did. Against Texas Tech and Texas they almost did.

But here’s the thing this weekend — West Virginia has been inconsistent too.

They were up 35-13 on Kansas at halftime, but let the Jayhawks get within eight points heading into the fourth quarter.

They were down 35-17 at home to Texas Tech midway through the third quarter before ripping off 29 unanswered points to win the game.

And last week, they were up 38-13 on Baylor at the start of the fourth quarter, but needed to stop a two-point conversion with :17 left to keep the Bears from tying it up.

Red Bull Holgorsen can blame the refs all he wants for the last one, but the rule is, three times makes a pattern, and one they’ve so far failed to correct. If West Virginia gets into a slump for even a quarter this Saturday, the Cowboys should be able to use it to pull ahead and stay there.

Why Oklahoma State Will Lose

David Sills V (13) and Will Grier (7) celebrate after beating the Texas Tech Red Raiders [USATSI]

Touchdowns, Touchdowns, Touchdowns

Oklahoma State will face the best quarterback and best wide receiever they’ve seen yet this season in Morgantown this Saturday.

Mason Rudolph and James Washington have been dynamic, but when it comes to touchdowns, there has been no one better than Will Grier and David Sills V. Grier is No. 1 in the nation in passing touchdowns (26) and No. 7 in yards (2,467). David Sills is No. 1 in receiving touchdowns (15) and No. 10 in yards (737).

Yes, OSU’s secondary is improving, but they haven’t faced anyone of the caliber of these two. We saw against Texas Tech what can happen when they face a decent QB, or at least one capable of slinging. If they don’t perform better against the ‘Neers than they did the Raiders, it will be a long day in Morgantown.

It’s Not Good To Be The Favorite

Since West Virginia joined the conference in 2012, Oklahoma State is 3-2 against the Mountaineers, and one of those loses was during the 2014 five-game losing streak.

However, the favorite entering the game has lost three of the last four. If you weren’t aware, Oklahoma State is a touchdown favorite this weekend.

If history holds, it’s going to be loss No. 2 for OSU.

Revenge Factor

Coaches say all the time there’s no revenge factor in games, but that’s a load of bull. West Virginia was 6-0 and No. 10 in the country when they came to Stillwater and promptly left with a bruise.

This year the tables are turned a bit. The Cowboys arrive in Morgantown ranked No. 10, with only one loss, and a lot on the line. If you think West Virginia players (and even some coaches) don’t have a little revenge in mind, you’re crazy. Give a good team extra motivation to beat an opponent and that can do some things. It can make a team extra focused, make them run a little faster, hit a little harder, really dial in their focus.

When the two teams are closely matched, revenge can be just the spark one needs to come out on top.