Bubble Watch: How OSU’s Tournament Résumé Stacks Up Against Bubble Teams

I cautioned you yesterday that the word “quadrant” would be the most used buzzword in March, and whaddya know, it’s March and NCAA Tournament bubble talk has already centered around how teams have fared in each Quadrant.

Yesterday I broke down how OSU stacked up against OU, a polarizing team with a better overall dossier than Oklahoma State, despite its absolute free fall from grace. So today I’m comparing OSU to several other comparable resumes to give you an idea of how the Cowboys stack up with other teams currently sitting on the bubble.

For quick reference, here’s a look at the Quadrant system breakdown.

Credit: CBS Sports

Oklahoma State

• Overall record: 17-13
• Conference record: 7-10
• RPI: 95
• Strength of record: 61
• Record vs. Quadrant 1 teams: 4-11
• Record vs. Quadrant 2 teams: 3-2
• Strength of schedule rank: No. 12

Texas

• Overall record: 17-13
• Conference record: 7-10
• RPI: 60
• Strength of record: 41
• Record vs. Quadrant 1 teams: 5-10
• Record vs. Quadrant 2 teams: 3-3
• Strength of schedule rank: No. 3

Louisville

• Overall record: 19-10
• Conference record: 9-7
• RPI: 39
• Strength of record: 39
• Record vs. Quadrant 1 teams: 3-8
• Record vs. Quadrant 2 teams: 2-2
• Strength of schedule rank: No. 53

Syracuse

• Overall record: 18-12
• Conference record: 7-10
• RPI: 44
• Strength of record: 53
• Record vs. Quadrant 1 teams: 2-7
• Record vs. Quadrant 2 teams: 4-2
• Strength of schedule rank: No. 45

Providence

• Overall record: 18-12
• Conference record: 9-8
• RPI: 43
• Strength of record: 46
• Record vs. Quadrant 1 teams: 3-7
• Record vs. Quadrant 2 teams: 5-1
• Strength of schedule rank: No. 25

Oklahoma

• Overall record: 17-12
• Conference record: 7-10
• RPI: 37
• Strength of record: 29
• Record vs. Quadrant 1 teams: 6-9
• Record vs. Quadrant 2 teams: 3-3
• Strength of schedule rank: No. 1

Southern California

• Overall record: 21-9
• Conference record: 12-5
• RPI: 31
• Strength of record: 54
• Record vs. Quadrant 1 teams: 4-5
• Record vs. Quadrant 2 teams: 4-3
• Strength of schedule rank: No. 75

Alabama

• Overall record: 17-13
• Conference record: 8-9
• RPI: 57
• Strength of record: 58
• Record vs. Quadrant 1 teams: 5-6
• Record vs. Quadrant 2 teams: 6-6
• Strength of schedule rank: No. 33

One thing that specifically stands out to me is the awful RPI Oklahoma State carries, which is nowhere near the ballpark these other bubble teams have. The lowest RPI to ever get into the Big Dance with an at-large bid is 67 (!!), which USC accomplished in 2011. OSU getting in with a 95 RPI would be the equivalent of Boone Pickens saying, “You know what, Gundy, let’s just let OU kick our tail every year. So long as we beat Kansas and Texas Tech we good.”

UPDATE: Syracuse also sneaked in the NCAA Tournament with a RPI of 71 in 2016. They replaced USC as the worst RPI team to ever get in with an at-large bid..

Another area OSU’s resume lacks is in Quadrant 1 wins. Yes, wins over Kansas, West Virginia, Florida State and Texas Tech are big time resume boosters (and specifically wins over WVU and KU), but there’s no added weight in the quad metric for beating a top-10 team.

So ultimately that’s why I think a win over Kansas on Saturday to get OSU to 5-11 in that category is critical. A loss won’t eliminate them, because the Big 12 tournament is obviously ripe with opportunity. But getting a fifth (and potentially sixth) Quad 1 win might be the clincher.

Anything less might not suffice, especially because of OSU’s standing in the RPI and strength of record, which the committee takes into consideration.