Dax Hill has Become a Lightning Rod for the Gundy-Holder Debate

When Mike Holder joined the PFB podcast earlier this month, his comments on Mike Gundy’s recruiting — and his wish to see it improve — caught flame on the internet and spread like a wildfire.

Holder praised OSU’s winningest coach, but in the same breath, challenged him. That doesn’t happen every day in the world of amateur athletics.

“I just think we would be better served with a few more James Washington’s coming in the front door,” Holder said. “You know, he came in as a two-star, three-star, left a five-star – we need to take some of those five-stars and turn them into seven-stars, which I think Rob Glass could do, and I think Mike Gundy could as well.”

Holder isn’t wrong … at all. Gundy has produced two- and three-stars like a middling Mexican restaurant’s Yelp reviews virtually since he took over the program. Even after leading the program to new heights that has included six 10-win seasons along the way, recruiting has mostly been avuruge. Since 2010, OSU has finished with a national recruiting class average ranking of 33, and its finish in the Big 12 hasn’t been higher than fourth (average finish: 5.22).

No matter your feelings on the political nature of rankings, how they’re eventually decided or the meaning of them, most will agree that four and five star talent, on average, is better than two and three star talent. Underrated talent can fall through the cracks and development staff can coach them into being productive, but more often than not those blue-chip talents hit big. It’s why Holder’s comments on capping your ceiling ring truer than many would like to acknowledge.

“I’d want to finish higher in those recruiting rankings than we consistently do,” Holder said. “I think that ultimately puts a ceiling on what you’re able to achieve .. I’m patting them on the back at the same time I’m challenging them to get out there and do a little bit more recruiting … Recruiting’s the most important thing we do, and you’re only as good as your athletes.”

In the fallout of Holder’s comments, OSU has been busy on the recruiting trail. Days after his appearance on the podcast, OSU landed its QB of the cycle, Brendan Costello. Josh Henson has also been steadily productive too, reeling in the brunt of his OL class in the month that has included several highly-touted three-stars like Cole Birmingham and Taylor Miterko.

But none of these new commitments quite measure up to the type of game-altering, can’t-miss talent Holder described. At least not in the rankings. Cole Birmingham and Costello are, in my eyes, borderline blue-chippers. But the type of talent we’re talking about is the type of talent that’s right under OSU’s nose …

Dax Hill. The 2019 five-star from Booker T. Washington.

Hill has become the lightning rod to the Holder-Gundy debate, fair or not, for two reasons. 1. He fits the description of a blue-chip talent — he’s a five-star, top-30 player nationally. 2. Hill has deep ties to OSU. He’s the younger brother of an OSU All-American!

And yet …. OSU doesn’t appear to be the front runner at this juncture. In the mix, sure. In the top six, absolutely. But front runner … that may be OU, Ohio State, Alabama or Michigan.

Which would only exacerbate Holder’s suggestion to begin with.

Hill could opt to play elsewhere — Alabama, Michigan, wherever — and no one would blame him. But if he stays in-state and his decision isn’t orange and black colored, it’ll be an All-American sized recruiting whiff, given the connections to him, the need for OSU at the position, and the pure talent that, frankly, doesn’t look OSU’s way too often.

The Oklahoma State staff has worked diligently to position itself to land Hill, but even still, missing on Hill this cycle would feel a lot like missing the only plane to paradise even though you’ve already bought a ticket. He’s well within reach — and his own Booker T. Washington coach believes the Pokes have a slight edge — but sealing the deal on a player of his caliber hasn’t been a strong suit under Gundy.

This time, though, with attention from all the eyeballs in the state, not closing the deal could be a mistake that haunts the staff … for at least three seasons beginning in 2019.