Mike Gundy is Not Taking South Dakota State Lightly, Neither Should His Team

Oklahoma State has the nation’s leading rusher, its second-oldest QB and the type of talent at wide receiver that would make two-thirds of the FBS jealous. Add in a defense stacked with experienced playmakers ready to take the next step, and you’ve got plenty of reasons to be excited as a Cowboys fan.

But the hype levels in Stillwater will take a significant hit if the Cowboys don’t come out swinging in their first game — even if it has practically zero impact on their ultimate goal.

OSU hosts FCS blueblood South Dakota State in Week 1, a team that hasn’t lost since Alan Bowman was holding a clipboard in Ann Arbor.

The Jackrabbits hop, skip (?), barrel into Stillwater on a 29-0 win streak, with their last loss being the last time they faced an FBS school. South Dakota State lost its 2022 season opener to an Iowa team that would go on to win a bowl game, by four points. Before that, its last lost came in the 2021 FCS Championship game. That’s a significant stretch of time without tasting defeat, and you can bet the Jackrabbits will be plenty confident when they walk out onto Lewis Field.

At a recent media availability, OSU coach Mike Gundy made it clear that he doesn’t view the Jackrabbits as just another FCS opponent.

“They’re physical, they’re tough, they’re not out of place much,” Gundy said. “They’re very well-coached. The point spread they went through last year was huge. They’re very capable of playing a Power Four conference schedule, I’ll put it that way.

“Teams that haven’t lost a game in a long time are difficult to play, because they don’t know how to lose. All they’ve ever done is win. So you have to take the game away from them. They’re not gonna give you the game.”

The key will be whether or not his team takes SDSU lightly. Gundy said he’s broached the discussion with his squad multiple times since the end of last season, starting in January, then again in the spring before drilling down on it as the Cowboys came into fall camp.

“They’re very aware of who this team is and they’re very aware of the success they’ve had, and they’ve watched tape on them,” Gundy said. “So the good news for us as coaches is when they watch them on video, they see that, ‘Yeah, Coach Gundy’s not B.S.-ing us. This deal’s legit.’ They have enough players — they’re physical enough in the box to play at this level. They have a very experienced quarterback that’s a playmaker. So it’s a dangerous challenge for us.”

He even caught some flak for scheduling what many might term a “trap game” in Week 1 (remember OSU’s slow start last year) when he appeared on Pat McAfee’s show on Wednesday.

Apples to Oranges?

Just how dangerous are the Jackrabbits? Gundy alluded to their “huge” point spread, stating that they could play a Power Four conference schedule, so I thought I’d take a look.

(Note: these numbers are practically anecdotal given the talent gap from FCS to FBS, but Gundy brought it up, so I thought it was worth digging into.)

On the way to a 15-0 finish last year, SDSU outscored opponents by 421 points, which is good for an average win margin of 28 points per game. OSU scored a total of 414 points, period, averaging 29.6 points per game last year. For reference, Michigan led the FBS in average scoring margin at a plus-382 points, an average of 25.5 points per game.

The Cowboys’ scoring margin was a total of plus-14 for the entire season, or an average of one point per game. I’m not sure I’ve ever looked at that number, specifically, but it seems pretty impressive to average a one-point win and go 10-4. If not impressive, at least strange.

South Dakota State’s only single-digit wins were by four over Montana State and by a touchdown over Southern Illinois, both eventual eight-win teams that made the FCS playoffs. Of OSU’s 10 wins, five were by single digits. K-State by eight, Kansas by seven, Oklahoma by three, BYU by six and Texas A&M by eight.

As far as common opponents in 2023, you won’t find any. But if we were really stretching, we could look at Missouri State, which South Dakota State beat 35-17 in its regular-season finale last year. The Cowboys started their 2021 season against Missouri State, edging out a slimmer 23-16 margin. That OSU team went on to win 12 games and a Fiesta Bowl.

Again, these “point spreads” as Gundy put them, probably don’t mean anything other than a reminder that this is not your average Central Arkansas booking.

We’ve seen the Cowboys struggle early in the season in recent history — and we’ve seen them struggle against lower-level directional schools from the north. If beating the drum that SDUS could hang in the Power Four makes his team even incrementally more ready for the Jackrabbits, then it’s the type of coach speak I’d like to hear as a Cowboys fan. And just because it’s coach speak, doesn’t mean it’s wrong.