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A Few Bets

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Photo Attribution: KT King

Bodog put some numbers to the 2011 season this week. Numbers like who’s favored to win the Heisman (3 of the 5 guys I drafted in our Heisman fantasy draft are in the top 9) and who’s favored to win the Big 12 and who will have the most rushing yards per game in the ACC. I mean there’s some pretty degenerate stuff in here.

Let’s filter it out though and look at the O-State bets you can make right now with real money at Bodog.com. Note: we’ll look at Heisman odds in a separate post.

Total Receiving Yards for Justin Blackmon

Over 1100 -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
Under 1100 -130 (bet $130 to win $100)

It looks like free money, right? Consider this though, only six times in the history of the OSU program has a receiver topped 1,100 yards (including Blackmon last year). With your life on the line right now you’d probably take the over but I wouldn’t exactly call it a lock.

Also, it’s interesting to me that you have to put down less money to bet the over. If Vegas’ goal is to get equal action on both sides wouldn’t they make the under the more desirable bet because the over seems so appealing straight up?

Total Receiving TDs for Justin Blackmon

Over 13.5 -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
Under 13.5 -120 (bet $120 to win $100)

Again, because he was so otherworldly last year this seems easy, but again there have only been five seasons in the history of the school where 14 receiving TDs was reached. I’d go under this with more confidence than I’d go under the total receiving yards number. I think Weeden spreads it out a little more this year.

Most TDs Per Game – Big 12

Landry Jones -200 (bet $300 to win $100)
Brandon Weeden +125 (bet $100 to win $175)
Robert Griffin III +700 (bet $100 to win $750)

Take away the bowl games (which you have to do with these bets) and Landry threw 35 TDs last year while Weeden had 32. Let’s also not forget that last year was Landry’s second year as a starter in the system. He realized a 50% jump in TD production from his first year to his second. If Weeden realizes the same he’ll throw for 50+ and you’ll be giggling all the way to the bank. I think there’s a ton of value for Weeden here at this number.

Most Passing Yards Per Game – Big 12

Landry Jones -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
Brandon Weeden +175 (bet $100 to win $175)
Robert Griffin III +750 (bet $100 to win $750)

This is dicey. OU is going to throw it way more than OSU is because the Cowboys have a deeper backfield. I mean Landry threw it 568 times last year (not counting the bowl game) and only out-tossed Weeden by a hair over 300 yards. Then again OSU is probably going to have more closer games than OU is and will more than likely need to pass more to stay in games late. I’m already all in on Weeden having the best statistical year in the history of the school but I’d stay away from this bet.

The fact that you can even put money down on Griffin is embarrassing.

Most Rushing Yards Per Game – Big 12

Cyrus Gray 2.5-1
Roy Finch 3.25-1
Malcolm Brown 3.75-1
Joseph Randle 4.5-1
James Sims 5.5-1
Henry Josey 7-1

As much as I’d love it, Joseph Randle is not going to lead the Big 12 in rushing. Now if you want to email Bodog with a Jeremy Smith 30-1 proposition just to see what they say, I’m all for that. I just think having a duo trio of talented backs kind of limits your ability to put up the yards you need to lead the conference. Consider the last five rushing champs:

2010 – Daniel Thomas (1585 yards)
2009 – Daniel Thomas (1265 yards)
2008 – Kendall Hunter (1555 yards)
2007 – Jamaal Charles (1619 yards)
2006 – Jon Cornish (1457 yards)

Now maybe if we have another year like 2009 Randle could sneak up there but I’d rather get James Sims or Roy Finch at better odds. Also, how is Bryce Brown not on this list? And how did Jon Cornish lead the Big 12 in rushing in 2006?

Most Rushing TDs – Big 12

Cyrus Gray 2.25-1
Malcolm Brown 2.5-1
Roy Finch 2.5-1
Joseph Randle 4.75-1
James Sims 7-1
Henry Josey 7.5-1

Not sure how Jeremy Smith posted over twice as many TDs as Randle last year and didn’t make this list. Again I wouldn’t bet a dollar on Randle at 4.75 to 1 here, it’s just not going to happen.

Most Receiving Yards Per Game – Big 12

Jeff Fuller 4.75-1
Justin Blackmon 2-1
Kendall Wright 5.5-1
Mike Davis 6.5-1
Ryan Broyles 1.75-1
TJ Moe 5.75-1

First of all, if you’re wagering any amount of money greater than you spend to go to Chipotle on a random weekday on Mike Davis to lead the Big 12 in receiving yards per game then you either 1.) have a gambling problem that has more than likely resulted in thousands of dollars of debt or 2.) have your head so far up Bevo’s rear end that you don’t even know A&M has a football program.

Now that we got that out of the way…this is a toss-up (literally). It’s hard to see someone other than one of the Oklahoma guys getting this. Last year Jeff Fuller had the third most receiving yards per game and he wasn’t within 30 of Broyles (116 to 82). I guess you have to go Blackmon because he’s the better value.

Most Receiving TDs Per Game – Big 12

Ryan Broyles 1.75-1
Justin Blackmon 2-1
Jeff Fuller 4.75-1
Kendall Wright 5.5-1
Mike Davis 6.5-1
TJ Moe 5.75-1

This one is a little more interesting. With the number of guys both OSU and OU have at wideout I might throw some money at a value here like Fuller or Moe. Fuller had 12 last year and played half the year with a one-armed QB. I wouldn’t have much confidence but I might take him at 4.75-1.

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