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Baylor Preview

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Photo Attribution: Icon SMI

Teams: #3 Oklahoma State 7-0 (4-0) vs. Baylor 4-2 (1-2)
Time: 2:30 AM CST
TV: ABC/ESPN2 – Coverage map
On the call: Bob Wischusen, Bob Davie and Jeannine Edwards

Kickoff: Two of the six highest scoring offenses in the country meet up at Boone’s house on Saturday. The problem for Baylor is that one of those teams also has a legitimate defense. Football Outsiders actually says Baylor’s offense is more prolific on a play-by-play basis (that stat is explained in further detail here).

OSU is looking to protect the highest BCS ranking in school history and is (I cannot believe my fingers are punching these keys) two games from moving into the #2 slot in the country.

For entertainment purposes:
Spread: Cowboys -14.5
Over/Under: 79.5

This line opened at OSU -18 which means people are piling cash on RG3 and the Bears. I think that’s fair, 18 seemed a bit extravagant. The real money to be made is on the over/under though. You guys know me, I’m all about taking the over, but I think Vegas is preying on people’s perception of OSU’s defense. Will OSU score 50+? Probably, but that means they’d have to give up 30+, which is a number they haven’t hit yet in conference play. Go under.

A few stats you should know:

    1. OSU has never played a home game while 7-0.
    1. Justin Gilbert got his first kick return against Baylor which means he has 4 in the last 12 games.
    1. Great find by Gavin Lang here: Nigel Nicholas has 8.0 tackles for loss this season. No OSU tackle had more than 4.0 TFLs all of last season.
    1. OSU is 2nd in the country in points scored but 95th in time of possession. I think that’s called being efficient.

What I’m excited about: It’s homecoming, I’m not sure I need much more to be excited about. Wouldn’t it be funny though, if this “porous” defense shut down everyone’s favorite darkhorse for the Heisman and stuck Baylor with another 30+ point loss? Wouldn’t it be funny if it was the defense that shone brightest this afternoon while the offense lay seething, ready to down K-State, Tech, and Iowa State en route to Bedlam…

OSU will win if: They get a turnover. Like, one. That hasn’t been an issue this year as they’ve forced 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 in their first seven games. #OccupyTheBackfield

How worried I am (out of 10):

Uniform prediction:

Gun to my head: OSU 49-27 – I think it plays out a lot like the A&M Baylor game. There’s so much pressure on RG3 to put it in the endzone every single time he touches it because of how paltry the Bears’ defense is. Baylor reminds me of OSU in ’08 or ’09: world-class offense that puts up 45 points and loses by 25.

Give me your predictions below!

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