Bowl Projections: Why Oklahoma State Probably Still Needs a Sixth Win

OSU nearly qualified for a 2018 bowl in the exact same way it qualified for a 2014 bowl: By winning as a three-TD dog in Norman in one of the final few games of the season. Unfortunately that bid came up just short (literally), and OSU still needs another W to get to that six-game threshold.

I’ve seen a few rumblings in recent days that OSU may already have enough wins (5) to get to the postseason. While it’s true that five-win teams make bowls every year, Kyle Cox did a good job framing why that probably won’t be OSU’s story this time around (although it could be … where would they hang the banner?)

If there are not enough six-win teams to fill out the full bowl slate, the NCAA will drag the marsh for a five-win team or two to fill in those extra spots. If there aren’t enough six-win teams, those mediocre five-win schools would be ranked based on their rolling four-year APR, or academic progress rate. Oklahoma State’s 2016-17 APR ranking was 1,000, which is a perfect score. Unfortunately, its four-year average is 969 which is good for No. T-61. [PFB]

Anyway, regardless of rolling APRs and rolling QB1 to the right, OSU should still qualify the old-fashioned way with a win in one of their final two games. Most national outlets agree. Here’s a roundup of where folks have the Pokes the week before Thanksgiving.

ESPN 1: Liberty Bowl (South Carolina)
ESPN 2: Liberty Bowl (Texas A&M)
USA Today: Texas Bowl (Tennessee)
SI: Liberty Bowl (Missouri)
SB Nation: Cheez-It Bowl (Cal)
CBS: Cheez-It Bowl (USC)

For how poorly this season has gone, those are some bowl game matchups. USC! Tennessee! Texas A&M! I know you aren’t getting the best version of those programs, but we don’t talk about when OSU played Bama, do we? Only that OSU has never lost to the Tide (Alabama hasn’t won a game against a team from Oklahoma since 1963 ?).

The one that intrigues me most is probably SC in Phoenix. I’ll probably travel to OSU’s bowl no matter where it is, but “SC in Phoenix” sounds a lot better than “(other) SC in Memphis.” Also, it would not be the first time OSU has used that specific game against a strong Pac-12 opponent as a jumping off point for a really successful three-year run.

But first, the Cowboys have to either take down a top-10 WVU team or beat TCU in Ft. Worth in the final game of the season to keep their bowl streak alive. If they do, they’ll likely have the eighth-longest streak in the country going into 2019.