Can Justin Blackmon be the #1 Pick?

There have been multiple 2012 mock drafts released in the last week that have Justin Blackmon going in one of the top two overall positions in next year’s NFL draft (specifically here and here).

So I decided to take the question to you guys to see what you thought. Surprisingly only 50% of you agreed that he could be the #1 pick in 2012.

(As an aside I’d like to say this shows that all of you actually considered the question before responding and that I appreciate having a cerebral, engaged crowd that doesn’t pull any “omg Rufus Alexander is like the best linebacker ever” crap like a certain other school’s fan base. So thanks for that).

Here’s the thing: I don’t think there’s ANY way Blackmon gets picked first overall and I think there’s actually a decent chance he won’t even be the first WR taken (all my South Carolina readers are nodding and clapping quite vociferously right now).

Since 1936 four WR have been taken first overall: Dave Parks in 1964, Lawrence Elkins in 1965 (AFL), Irving Fryar in 1984, and Keyshawn in 1996. Heck, only three have gone #2 in that same time span, and two of those came in the last ten years (Calvin and Charles Rogers).

The Keyshawn draft (since that’s our obvious point of reference) was pretty weak overall in the first round. Nothing real notable from the skill positions besides Eddie George at #14 and Marvin Harrison at #19.

Obviously I have absolutely no idea who’s going to have the #1 pick next year (or for that matter if there will even BE a #1 pick), and a lot of #1 pickage depends on positional need, but I just can’t fathom any team going #1 with JB. He’s not going to combine (is that a verb?) well which will hurt him (no matter that I think the combine in and of itself is an embarrassment to athletes, 32 NFL GMs don’t care what I think).

His stats, while mind-blowing, aren’t so overwhelming that a team will be forced to take him #1 overall. Plus there’s this hard-throwing right-handed quarterback from Houston playing at a very illustrious west coast school who I’ve heard is decent at football.

Look, I’m not saying he’s not a 1st round talent (he very obviously is) but a lot of pieces are going to have fall in the right place for him to go #1 overall. And that’s kind of the point, going #1 is probably 60% skill and 40% luck (not to go all hip-hop on you).

The real (or more real) question is whether or not he’s going to go in the top ten. Again, I don’t think he will but that’s probably another post for another time…like after he plays thirteen more college games.