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Daily Bullets (Nov 10) – Justice Hill-Bedlam Version, Good and Bad Signs

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5 years ago

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Happy Bedlam, let er’ rip.

Make Your Own Breaks

For OSU to win as a double-digit dog, they’ll have to make some breaks for themselves. A huge step in the right direction would be to steal some turnovers. And that’s not something they’ve done much of this year.

OU has only eight turnovers this season, but three came in its loss to Texas on Oct. 6.

Here’s another reason the statistic is important: History has shown Gundy’s teams find ways to win when the turnover battle is on their side.

Since the start of the 2009 season, Oklahoma State is 37-3 when it wins the turnover battle in Big 12 games. When turnover margin is even or negative, the Cowboys are just 21-24.

OSU hasn’t posted a positive turnover margin in a conference game this season, and it has sputtered to 2-4. [TulsaWorld]

If I remember right, two of those three losses were to OU when they won the turnover battle. Regardless, they’ll have a heck of a lot better chance of pulling this thing off with a solid turnover margin.

Laundry Everywhere

Alternatively, a staple in OSU losses has been flags all over the place.

Yet the most penalized team of Mike Gundy’s 14-year tenure still went out and committed 12 for 133 yards in Saturday’s 35-31 loss to Baylor. Of the 141 yards the Bears gained on two fourth-quarter touchdown drives to win the game, 45 were gifts from OSU via three 15-yard penalties. Oklahoma State has averaged nine penalties for 90.8 yards per game in its four losses. [TulsaWorld]

So force a couple turnovers (and give none away) and only be penalized three to five times and the indicators will look alright for the good guys.

Justice to the Rescue

Justice Hill has been Sooner kryptonite in his short time in Stillwater. He’ll need to do everything shy of drive the bus to Norman for the Pokes to win today.

Hill takes a handoff and heads right. Baylor’s entire defensive front pursues. OSU’s blockers can’t withstand the pressure. So Hill stops and goes left instead. Actually, he retreats eight yards behind the line of scrimmage to give himself an angle on the second wave of pursuit… And he gains nine yards.

Instincts and gifts take over and he makes something out of absolutely nothing.

He is a special back, this kid. He is his team’s best player, someone who stands out even as his offensive line suffers and OSU’s record fades.

That makes him the Cowboys’ most important player, representing their best path to an upset, at Bedlam Saturday. That’s why all eyes are on him. [TulsaWorld]

That may not be a fair take – Cornelius and Wallace, Tyron, Stoner, and Co. will have to help open up the running game as well. But having a dominant running game will make or break the Cowboys ability to keep pace with this historically potent Sooner offense.

OSU and NCAA Notes

Cool Bedlam viz with every touchdown since 2000….Fascinating read on how CFB quarterback recruiting rankings have changed with the proliferation of spread offenses….College football for lightweights….A host of one of my favorite podcasts (Planet Money) is speaking at OSU on Tuesday….Robert W. with some solid Bedlam recalibration….Cowgirl Basketball snuck out with a win in the season opener

Why the odds on OSU and OU aren’t true of every non-Kansas team blows my mind. The Kansas B-team might be able to win the league this year.

Harper’s development this year has been encouraging.

OSU will need another thousand from this guy today.

Beat the Sooners.

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