On the Importance of Big 12 First Teamers

Today, the Big 12 released their first team selections for the 2016 college football season. OU lead with a whopping nine selections, followed by Kansas State (with five!), Texas (four) and Oklahoma State/TCU (three).

Preseason All-Big 12 selections by team:

Oklahoma 9
K-State 5
Texas 4#OKState 3
TCU 3
Baylor 2
Iowa State 2
WVU 2
Texas Tech 1
Kansas 0

— Mark Cooper (@mark_cooperjr) July 13, 2016

It’s 2016 and people care about these kinds of lists (although I doubt Bill Snyder looks twice or maybe even once at the selections) — they build hype around players, generate buzz amongst fan bases, and give the media representatives (who select these teams in the first place) something to discuss and argue about.

But how important is this list, really? Is the number of first team all-Big 12 selections an accurate indicator for future success?

Let’s take a look at the last four years since West Virginia and TCU joined the Big 12, comparing the number of preseason All-Big 12 selections to the eventual finish in the standings in the Big 12.

Big 12 finish is on average.

As you can see, while the number of pre-season All Big-12 performers isn’t an exact match to actual finish in the standings, there is a strong correlation between the two.

Oklahoma and Baylor stand 1-2 as far as average finish and number of pre-season first teamers in the past four years. Oklahoma State has outperformed their average finish compared to their rank in number of All Big-12 performers by two spots, and Kansas State has underperformed by several spots.

It should be noted, however, that Kansas State consistently ranks in the lower half of the Big 12 in recruiting classes’ rank so their All-Big 12 players are a testament to the coaching ability of Bill Snyder and his staff. Consistently turning 2 and 3-star talent into all Big-12 picks is quite an accomplishment.

The rest of the Big 12 (TCU, Texas, Tech, West Virginia, Iowa State, and Kansas) have performed fairly close to their expectations, if simply looking at number of preseason All Big-12 selections.

With the fallout at Baylor this summer, several underwhelming classes for Texas, and the significant personnel losses at TCU, the opportunity is there for the taking for the Cowboys going forward in terms of competition for talent. Baylor has lost the vast majority of their top recruits for 2017 and has seen QB Jarrett Stidham and others transfer out of the program which does not bode well for their talent level the next few years.

In addition, the Cowboys have impressed thus far on the 2017 recruiting trail. Time will tell, but if the past four years are any indication, Oklahoma State has a strong chance to finish in the top 3-4 in the Big 12 in 2016, with the potential for an even higher finish in the coming years.