OSU Football 2017 Preview: TCU Has Some Serious Questions Heading into Fall

Oklahoma State gets its first taste of conference play with a visit from TCU in mid-September. The Horned Frogs will be looking for more consistency on offense, particularly from the quarterback position. And they’ll be looking for some payback after losing the last two meetings to OSU by a combined 45 points.

Particulars

When: Saturday, September 23 at TBA

TV: TBD

Where: Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, Oklahoma

Last Meeting: Last November, the Cowboys smacked TCU in front of their home crowd with a dominant defensive effort and a balanced offensive attack. The game was significant for several reasons.

For starters, it was the Cowboys’ first win at TCU since 1947. The two schools have only been conference mates for five years. But the home team has won seven of the last nine meetings. OSU holds a 15-10-2 record in the series.

Also significant: It was OSU’s highest rushing total (334 yards) since the 2013 Iowa State game. And it featured their best yards-per-carry average (7.4) since Savannah State in 2012. Chris Carson had his best game as a Cowboy, totaling 146 yards and a touchdown on 8.6 yards per carry. Not to be outdone, Justice Hill further cemented himself as a face of the program moving forward with 154 yards on 9.6 yards per carry. Oh yeah, and he broke Thurman Thomas’ freshman rushing record with this play.

Offense

There are some serious questions about TCU’s offense. And they start with the quarterback position and Kenny Hill. Describing Hill’s 2016 campaign as inconsistent would be generous. Here’s a look at his passing stats against Big 12 defenses in 2016.

Hill was only on the plus side in TDs-to-interceptions in three conference games. Two of those were one to zero. His passer rating was eighth among Big 12 QBs last year, ahead of only Kansas State’s Jesse Ertz and Kansas’ Carter Stanley. As a result, TCU struggled to move the ball consistently and four of six to end the regular season including blowouts to Oklahoma State and Kansas State.

If Hill is not the answer, then who is? Foster Sawyer, his only competition from a year ago transferred to Stephen F. Austin. The Horned Frogs do have four-star Shawn Robinson who was the No. 7 dual-threat QB in the 2017 class per 247 Sports. But his spring game didn’t exactly inspire confidence among TCU fans. He may be a year away. The job is likely Hill’s to lose. He probably won’t accomplish that before their Big 12 opener in Stillwater.

Whoever does take snaps in purple will at least have some weapons at their disposal. KaVontae Turpin appears to be healthy and is a game changer. Leading rusher Kyle Hicks is back for his senior season, as well as 2016 leading receiver Taj Williams.

The X-factor may be all-purpose back Shaun Nixon who missed all of last season with injury. As a freshman in 2015, he showed off his break-neck speed and was featured as a receiver and rusher.  Nixon caught nine passes for 146 yards in Stillwater two years ago. This might jog your memory.

But the biggest question for TCU’s offense is how much it will miss last year’s co-offensive coordinator Doug Meacham who took the lead OC gig at Kansas. The Frogs still have Sonny Cumbie but the two seemingly worked so well as co-offensive coordinators. Gary Patterson did hire former Cal head coach Sonny Dykes, another Hal Mumme/Mike Leach disciple as an offensive analyst this off season.

Defense

Gary Patterson’s signature defense was not its normal self in 2016. Even though it ranked in the top half of the Big 12 in scoring defense, passing and rushing defense.

He spoke about how his defense needs to be better at Big 12 Media Days on Monday.

“And we’ve got to play a lot better defense to help him [Hill] out,” said Patterson. “We ended up, I think, statistically somewhere around second in the conference, but to be honest with you, it was very average for us. Our standards are a lot higher, football-wise, the way we want to play and how we want to do things. Because the ultimate goal is to get in the playoffs and win the Big 12 conference.

“At the end of the year, we got beat up in the second half against a couple of teams. We’ve got to be stronger. We’ve got to be more physical and mentally tough.”

The Frogs return the Big 12’s top two leading tacklers from last season in linebackers Travin Howard and Ty Summers. They also retain the services of Jim Thorpe finalist Nick Orr. A defensive line that loses key players, Aaron Curry, Josh Carraway and Josh McFarland will get a little help in the form of Louisiana-Monroe grad-transfer Ben Banogu who sat out last season due to NCAA transfer rules.

Key Matchup

How well can TCU’s pass rushers turn up the pressure on Mason Rudolph? The Horned Frogs led the Big 12 in sacks last season. Even with key losses on the defensive line, TCU will field some disruptive pass rushers. In 2015 at UL-Monroe, Banogu had five sacks, 14.5 tackles for loss and five QB hurries. He also forced two fumbles and had two pass breakups against Sun Belt Conference QB’s. The Frogs also return defensive end Matt Boeson who was second on the team in sacks (six) and is the leading returner from a year ago with eight tackles for loss.

Across the ball, Oklahoma State has allowed the most sacks of any Big 12 team two of the last three seasons. They allowed 40 in 2014 (worst), 32 in 2015 (4th-best) and 32 last season (worst). That number needs to improve for the Cowboys if they want to accomplish their goals. And they’ll be tested early between Pitt in Week 3 and TCU a week later. The line should be better and slightly deeper in 2017 but a lot will depend on how quickly Cal transfer Aaron Cochran can gel with the rest of the group under first-year offensive line coach Josh Henson.

Conclusion

TCU has a lot more questions than the Cowboys do heading into 2017 and the biggest is behind center. The Mason Rudolph-to-Kenny Hill mismatch is the biggest difference between the two teams and may prove to be a deciding factor on its own.

Summer Prediction

I think the Cowboy offense gets all its bugs worked out by the start of Big 12 play and rolls over TCU 42-17.