OSU Football: Three Reasons the Kansas Game Makes Me Nervous

I’ve been guilty of it and you may have been too.

During a late, second bye week for football — and in the thralls of Cade-sanity  — I have put too much thought into what happens when OSU wins its next two games and heads to  Bedlam with eight wins, and too little into the possibility that OSU could absolutely lose this weekend, to Kansas.

The thought sneaked up on me so late in the process, that now I’m a little bit nervous.

Yes, the Cowboys are enjoying their first Big 12 win streak in two years, and yes, IT’S KANSAS. But if recent history has taught Mike Gundy’s team anything it’s to not take any opponent for granted.

Here are three reasons that this Kansas game might not be a gimme.

1. KU is Never a Gimme

Okay, sometimes it is, but I’ve witnessed enough nerve-rackingly close contests against the Jayhawks to be suspicious, especially given OSU’s recent erratic play (which we’ll get to later).

OSU has won nine in a row over Kansas and 14 of the last 15, but there have been plenty of OMG, is OSU gonna be the next UT?!?! moments.

In 2014, a Tyreek Hill’s late kick return TD saved the Cowboys’ hide, and two years before that the Pokes barely bested KU 20-14. And in plenty of those other games, where the final score makes it look like a blowout, the Cowboys played the Jayhawks too close for comfort.

2. This Might Not Be the Same Old Kansas

Despite their record, this is not the same old Jayhawk team we’re used to. Actually, the record does kind of reflect that.

With three games remaining, KU is 3-6. The program hasn’t topped three wins since 2009 when it finished 5-7 in Mark Mangino’s final year. That’s three head coaches and nine years of football without reaching four wins. You’d better believe Les Miles has his eyes set on hitting that mark in the stadium he first donned a headset in.

Through those nine games, Miles has KU averaging its highest scoring output (25.8 points per game) since that 2009 season. The Rock Chalkers hung 48 on Texas, and were a last-second field goal from earning the upset, and topped Texas Tech 37-34. So they aren’t inept offensively, and they’ve got star in Pooka Williams, who is behind only Chuba and Jalen Hurts in the Big 12 in rushing.

“Every team is good in the Big 12,” said Chuba Hubbard this week. “They had close games with Texas, Iowa State and OU. They’re a great team that plays physical and flies around, and they should be a good test.”

Kansas will serve as a test for OSU in more ways than one…

3. Cowboys Still Need to Earn Back Some Trust

With their win over TCU two weeks ago, the Pokes not only strung together back-to-back wins, they moved to just 18-10 when favored since 2017 and 8-6 as a favorite at home.

Here are the updated splits, robbed from a previous PFB article, following the homecoming loss to Baylor.

OSU as a favorite:

2005-2016: 81-12
2017-Present: 18-10

OSU when favored at home:

2005-2016: 48-6
2017-Present: 8-6

That’s not great, and one win over a now sub-.500 TCU team is not enough to get the monkey off Mike Gundy’s back or earn back the benefit of the doubt he lost from two-plus years of inconsistency.

We’ve seen the Cowboys trip up and play down to their opponent more times than I’d like to count and even more than those above numbers tell. I’m not as worried about if the Pokes win as much as I want to see how they win.

To earn back some of the fanbase’s trust that has been lost over the last couple of years, the Cowboys need to come out firing on all cylinders. If they truly have turned a corner, it will show on Saturday.