Predicting the OSU Basketball Record: Big 12 – Part 1

As much as I love college football season, there’s not much each year I look forward to more than the start of college basketball season.

Yeah, it’s not what it used to be, and neither are the Cowboys, but the basketball team (that 2004 squad specifically) is the reason I became a die-hard Oklahoma State fan.

So, with the season officially starting in just a couple of days, I’m predicting the Cowboys record, one game at a time. We already previewed the non-conference schedule where I (optimistically) predicted the Cowboys to finish 10-3.

Now we turn to conference play. I’m splitting it up into two parts starting with the first nine games. OSU begins conference play facing every other team once, except Kansas (OSU plays OU twice in the first nine games).

Here are my predictions.

Key Games

Bedlam Part 1 & 2 — Oklahoma

January 3 | Norman, OK
January 20 | Stillwater, OK
Last Season: 11-20 (5-13 Big 12)

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The Sooners return most of a young but talented team that disappointed last season. Back for OU are two of its three starters in the back court; second leading scorer Kameron McGusty who averaged 10.9 a game as a true freshman and junior Rashard Odomes, who averaged 10.1 points and 4.4 rebounds a game. While starting point guard Jordan Woodard is gone, OU may have actually upgraded at the position with the addition of talented Norman native Trae Young, who picked the Sooners over the Cowboys.

Throw in returning senior forward Khadeem Lattin, and OU is sure to show major improvement over last year’s squad. I wouldn’t pick them to win the league, but OSU isn’t likely to sweep the Sooners again this season.

Luckily, OSU gets the Sooners at home on a Saturday afternoon. If the fan base shows up and shows out like they have the past couple of seasons for Bedlam basketball, I’ll go ahead and pick OSU to pull out the home victory

Projection: L on the road | W at home

Iowa State

January 6 | Stillwater, OK
Last Season: 24-11 (12-6 Big 12)

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Do you know the last time OSU beat Iowa State in basketball? January 30, 2013. When the Cyclones come to Stillwater in early January it will have been almost five years, and 10 straight losses, since the Cowboys were victors over the ‘Clones.

I truly believe this is the game where that streak finally ends.

Gone are Monte Morris, Naz Mitrou-Long, Deonte Burton, and Matt Thomas, all guys that killed OSU in one game or another. In fact, ISU loses five of their top six scorers from last year. The top two guys back? Senior guard Donovan Jackson who 6.4 points, and sophomore forward Solomon Young who averaged 4.4 points a game.

This is an Iowa State team going through a major rebuild.

All that said, they do have one guy in particular to watch; five-star true freshman point guard Lindell Wigginton. Rivals rated him as the 24th-best player in the 2017 class.

Still, if OSU is going to turn the tide in this series, this is the year to do it, and the game in Stillwater is where I think it happens. In fact, I think ISU is more likely to end up in tenth place at the end of the season than OSU is.

Prediction: W

Road Win Chance 1 — Kansas State

January 10 | Manhattan, KS
Last Season: 21-14 (8-10 Big 12)

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Ever since Frank Martin took his talents to South Carolina, Kansas State has been a middle of the pack team in the Big 12. I think they stay there this year too.

While the Wildcats lose leading last year’s leading scorer Wesley Iwundu, they return three of their other four top scorers; Kamau Stokes (11.7 ppg), Barry Brown (11.7 ppg), and Dean Wade (9.3 ppg). All three are juniors, meaning they’ll be handling the roles of leadership on the court.

Kansas State should be decent again, but Iwundu was the best player on that team last year. If anyone is going to step up and fill his production, I’d put my money on Wade.

So why highlight this game? I think it’s one of OSU’s best chances for a road win. The Cowboys haven’t been great in Manhattan; before last year’s win, they hadn’t beaten the Wildcats on their home court since 2010.

I’m calling it a loss, based on the history and the fact it will still be early in Boynton’s Big 12 coaching career, but if I had to pick a surprise road game for the Cowboys to win, this would be it.

Prediction: L

Road Win Chance 2 — Texas Tech

January 23 | Lubbock, TX
Last Season: 18-14 (6-12 Big 12)

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OSU’s other best chance for a conference road win this season comes just two weeks later. I think Tech will not only be better this year (and make the tournament), but I also think they were better last year than their record indicated.

This year’s team will be loaded with experience and depth. Back are seniors Keenan Evans and Zach Smith, who led the team in scoring last season (Evans at 15.4 ppg, Smith at 12.1 ppg). Also returning is senior Justin Gray, who was the best defender for the Red Raiders last season. He was second on the team in blocks at .87 a game, and averaged nearly a steal a game. Overall they should be a good defensive team with most of the last seasons rebounding, blocks, and steals back.

Throw in second year head coach Chris Beard, who I think can coach, and a talented, under-the-radar true freshman guard in Zhaire Smith, and this should be a good team.

After saying all that, this is a Tech team that has never shown consistency. Despite another year of experience, I don’t expect them to this year either. I’m not saying it’s a for sure win, but I think the Cowboys have the talent to go on the road and beat the Red Raiders in Lubbock.

Prediction: W

Projected Record: 4-5
Total Projected Record 14-8

Until I see this team in action, I’m going to have a hard time picking them to beat teams like Texas and Baylor, and a really hard time picking them to win true road games. This conference is brutal, and the Cowboys haven’t been a good road team for a long time. Granted, it’s hard for anyone not named Kansas to win on the road in Big 12 play.

Throw in the fact that OSU hasn’t had a winning record after their first six games of conference play since 2014 and I think they’ll have a rough time out of the gate.