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Revisiting PFB’s Preseason Predictions for the 2017 Football Season

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This summer, we at PFB laid out our predictions for what had the makings of an historic football season. A lot of history was made, but the Cowboys didn’t reach all of their preseason goals — or the loft expectations placed upon the. Let’s just say that on some points were closer than others, and there were a few bold predictions mixed in.

So for the sake of transparency — and to open ourselves up to ridicule — let’s take a look at the those summer predictions and how well they’ve aged after 13 games.

Let’s start with some of preseason award predictions.

Prediction Offensive MVP Defensive MVP
Kyle Porter Mason Rudolph Calvin Bundage
Phillip Slavin Mason Rudolph Ramon Richards
Kyle Boone Justice Hill Kenneth Edison-McGruder
Nick Welch Mason Rudolph Jarrell Owens
Hayden Barber Aaron Cochran Tre Flowers
Steven Mandeville Justice Hill Zach Sinor
Kyle Cox Mason Rudolph Justin Phillips

Rudolph was the majority vote and that’s probably the right call. He set or broke more records than I knew existed and Mike Gundy called him the most decorated OSU player since Barry Sanders. I can’t argue with Justice Hill, either.

On defense, we were across the board and any of a handful could be picked. Of these picks, Tre Flowers is probably my choice now. Before you roast Steven, don’t forget that Zach Sinor helped OSU lead the nation in defensive starting field position last year. This year the Cowboys came in at 13th.

Freshman and Surprise of the Year
Prediction Freshman of the Year Surprise of the Year
Kyle Porter Brock Martin Marcell Ateman
Phillip Slavin J.D. King A.J. Green
Kyle Boone J.D. King Rodarius Williams
Nick Welch J.D. King  —
Hayden Barber J.D. King  —
Steven Mandeville Chuba Hubbard A Dominant D-Line
Kyle Cox Dillon Stoner Rodarius Williams

J.D. King was a solid pick, especially after a 95-yard debut, but Gundy and Co. road Justice Hill hard. I’ll claim the W on my Dillon Stoner pick, even if it was a technicality. Porter’s and Steven’s picks will get another shot at the honor in 2018.

For surprise of the year, A.J. Green and Rodarius Williams performed well for being thrown into the fire with zero starts between them. Marcell Ateman is probably the winner though. Here’s Porter’s explanation for his pick which was spot on.

Marcell Ateman, not James Washington, will be Rudolph’s “I have to have this first down or touchdown or this game is in jeopardy” go-to receiver this year.

Now let’s run through some of our numbers predictions for OSU’s Big 3.

Mason Rudolph’s Numbers: 4,904 Passing Yards and 37 TDs
Prediction Yards TDs
Kyle Porter 4,340 32
Phillip Slavin 4,200 30
Kyle Boone 4,324 25
Nick Welch 4,500 29
Hayden Barber 4,250 27
Steven Mandeville 4,000 30
Kyle Cox 4,250 35

Looks like we all undersold the numbers that Rudolph and this offense would put up. He didn’t make every throw, and there are definitely a couple he would want back. But those numbers speak for themselves. This guy is going to be missed at OSU.

James Washington’s Numbers: 1,549 Receiving Yards and 13 TDs
Prediction Yards TDs
Kyle Porter 1,410 9
Phillip Slavin 1,300 11
Kyle Boone 1,456 14
Nick Welch 1,350 10
Hayden Barber 1,280 10
Steven Mandeville 1,250 8
Kyle Cox 1,492 12

[Clears throat] It looks like only one of us had Washington passing Rashaun to land at the No. 1 spot in Oklahoma State history. Another all-timer at Oklahoma State who will be sorely missed next year and beyond. The Cowboys have plenty of talent returning at wideout but they’ll never have another Prez.

Justice Hill’s Numbers: 1,467 Rushing Yards and 15 TDs
Prediction Yards TDs
Kyle Porter 1,430 11
Phillip Slavin 1,300 8
Kyle Boone 1,520 14
Nick Welch 1,190 11
Hayden Barber 1,410 7
Steven Mandeville 1,400 10
Kyle Cox 1,350 13

Kyle Boone is the only one of us who didn’t undersell Justice. The All-American snub led the Big 12 in rushing yards and TDs and returns in 2018 as Oklahoma State’s best player and one of the top RBs in the nation.

Boone is ahead of the curve for next year, as well.

Return Yardage Leader (Punts + Kickoffs): Tyron Johnson (264 KO return yards)
Prediction Return Yardage Leader
Kyle Porter Tyron Johnson
Phillip Slavin Tyron Johnson
Kyle Boone Tyron Johnson
Nick Welch Tyron Johnson
Hayden Barber Tyron Johnson
Steven Mandeville Jalen McCleskey
Kyle Cox Tyron Johnson

Most of us saw Tyron as the leading returner but things didn’t exactly play out as we envisioned. The guy who Mike Yurcich said could get around Kyle Porter in a phone booth couldn’t get around the water cooler off of the sidelines. Hopefully, with Washington, Ateman and Lacy moving on Tyron will be unleashed on the world in 2018.

Tackles Leader: Tre Flowers (79 total, 54 solo)
Prediction Tackles Leader
Kyle Porter Tre Flowers
Phillip Slavin Chad Whitener
Kyle Boone Darrion Daniels
Nick Welch Chad Whitener
Hayden Barber Kenneth Edison-McGruder
Steven Mandeville Tre Flowers
Kyle Cox Justin Phillips

Flowers pulled out the No. 1 spot over last year’s leader, Chad Whitener with 76 total tackles and 50 solo grabs. Justin Phillips came in third with 64 total tackles (42 solo).

Sacks Leader: DeQuinton Osborne (6.0)
Prediction Sacks Leader
Kyle Porter Cole Walterscheid
Phillip Slavin Tralund Webber
Kyle Boone Jarrell Owens
Nick Welch Jarrell Owens
Hayden Barber Tralund Webber
Steven Mandeville Cole Walterscheid
Kyle Cox Jordan Brailford

The DQ Blizzard wreaked havoc from the defensive tackle spot. Jordan Brailford came in second with 5.5 sacks and Calvin Bundage was third with 3.0, two of which were on Bake Mayfield.

Interceptions Leader: A.J. Green (4)
Prediction Interceptions Leader
Kyle Porter Ramon Richards
Phillip Slavin Ramon Richards AND Tre Flowers
Kyle Boone Tre Flowers
Nick Welch Tre Flowers
Hayden Barber Ramon Richards
Steven Mandeville Ramon Richards
Kyle Cox Rodarius Williams

A.J. Green had four INTs and Chad Whitener, Justin Phillips, Ramon Richards and Tre Flowers each had two apiece.

Rudolph’s Finish In Heisman Race: 7th
Prediction Rudolph Heisman Vote Ranking
Kyle Porter 3rd
Phillip Slavin 5th
Kyle Boone 1st
Nick Welch Outside of Top 5
Hayden Barber Bronze Medal
Steven Mandeville Outside of Top 5
Kyle Cox 2nd

Rudolph had plenty of Heisman buzz early, especially after a record-setting performance against Pitt. But after the Cowboys started Big 12 play with a loss and stumbled along the way, his numbers alone weren’t enough for an invite to New York. Here’s a look at the complete voting.

Final Heisman Voting
Place Name School Pos Class 1st 2nd 3rd Total Pts
1 Baker Mayfield Oklahoma QB SR 732 87 28 2,350
2 Bryce Love Stanford RB JR 75 421 233 1,300
3 Lamar Jackson Louisville QB JR 47 197 258 793
4 Saquon Barkley Penn State RB JR 15 73 113 304
5 Rashaad Penny San Diego St. RB SR 7 37 80 175
6 Jonathan Taylor Wisconsin RB FR 2 7 38 58
7 Mason Rudolph Oklahoma St. QB SR 2 14 22 56
8 McKenzie Milton UCF QB SO 4 11 20 54
9 Kerryon Johnson Auburn RB JR 0 14 17 45
10. Roquan Smith Georgia LB JR 3 11 7 38

Now let’s run through our overall predictions for the team, which were lofty.

Oklahoma State’s Best AP Ranking: No. 6
Prediction Highest AP Ranking
Kyle Porter 2
Phillip Slavin 4
Kyle Boone 3
Nick Welch 4
Hayden Barber 5
Steven Mandeville 3
Kyle Cox 4
Oklahoma State’s Big 12 Record (and Place): 6-3 (3rd)
Prediction Big 12 Record Big 12 Ranking
Kyle Porter 9-1 1st
Phillip Slavin 9-1 1st
Kyle Boone 9-1 1st
Nick Welch  —  —
Hayden Barber 9-1 1st
Steven Mandeville 8-1 T1
Kyle Cox 7-2 2nd
Final Record and Bowl Prediction: 10-3, Win over Virginia Tech in Camping World Bowl
Prediction Final Record Bowl Destination/Opponent
Kyle Porter 12-2 Loss to Ohio State in CFP Semis
Phillip Slavin 12-2 Loss to Alabama in CFP Semis
Kyle Boone 12-2 Loss to Florida State in CFP Semis
Nick Welch 11-2 Loss in CFP Semis
Hayden Barber 11-3  —
Steven Mandeville 12-2 Loss to LSU in Cotton Bowl
Kyle Cox 12-2 Loss in a NY6 Bowl

Let’s just say our hopes were high for this team. With all the talent returning and the turnover at several other teams, especially Oklahoma, this looked like the year for OSU to run through the Big 12.

A year in which the big boys came to Stillwater, the Cowboys finished 3-3 at home. This season was a disappointment, any way you slice it. But the Cowboys were able to finish on a good note and have an exciting crop of young talent returning (and incoming). Here’s to another list of Kool-Aid fueled predictions next summer.

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