Seven Things to Know About the Oklahoma State-Iowa State Game

Oklahoma State travels to Ames [has mini-seizure just from writing those words in succession has to take 20-minute break] this weekend to play No. 23 Iowa State in an effort to avoid going 4-4 heading into November.

The Pokes have not lost in Ames since …. 2011, but the Cyclones are a double-digit favorite on Saturday. OSU badly needs to right a teetering ship before coming home for three of its last four. I don’t know that Jack Trice is the location I would choose to right that ship, but that’s the scene ahead.

Here are seven things you need to know about this OSU-Iowa State matchup.

1. Iowa State = Baylor? I was looking at net PPD on Wednesday (because that’s what I do) and Iowa State and Baylor have essentially the same numbers. Iowa State’s offense is a bit better, Baylor’s defense is a bit better, but the net number is almost exactly the same. This makes sense given they played a game that came down to a last-second field goal, but I think that gives a good idea of what to expect this weekend. OSU can (and should) be competitive, but it’s kind of difficult to see them winning.

2. Four conference losses: OSU has lost four or more Big 12 games just six times under Mike Gundy since 2005. If it loses on Saturday — as most everyone expects — this will be season No. 7 (with four games left). Conference losses (not including this year) …

1: Once
2: Five times
3: Twice
4: Twice
5: Twice
6: Once
7: Once

3. Turnover battle reigns: I’ve been screaming about this for two years, it seems like, but OSU is 58-6 (!) when it wins the turnover battle since 2008. It’s a Spencer Sanders thing, sure, but it’s also a defense thing. Since Jim Knowles got to Stillwater, only six teams have turned teams over fewer times than OSU has (20 in 20 games). And only three of them are Power 5 teams (one of them is OU).

4. Big play trouble: OSU ranks No. 110 nationally in plays of 40+ yards given up. Iowa State ranks No. 33 nationally in offensive plays of 40+ yards. I do not like these numbers.

5. Rushing bonanza: Two amazing stats on OSU’s rush game. One Chuba and one from the entire team. Here’s the Chuba one.

1. Chuba — 180.7 YPG
2. AJ Dillon — 138.3 YPG
3. Jonathan Taylor — 136.7 YPG

Those are your top three rushers nationally. Nobody else has cleared 1,000 yards this season, and Chuba will likely leave Ames with 1,400. Incredible.

Here’s the team number that had me intrigued. OSU is averaging 279 rush yards per game as a team, which would be sixth in school history behind 1972, 1988 (duh), 1973, 1945 (forward pass frowned upon) and 1976. Most of that is Chuba (obviously), but I’m not sure I realized just how historically proficient they’ve been.

6. Third-down powerhouse: Remember when OSU couldn’t get off the field on third down for like 11 straight years? I mean that somewhat literally. The script has flipped this season. OSU is 76th nationally in this category but has been awesome in the Big 12 (second behind TCU so far). And look at these numbers from the last four weeks of CFB.

7. Another Chuba number: The Sanders stuff is LOL, but Chuba is closing in on the top four when it comes to single-season rushing TDs. If he grabs two in Ames, he’ll have fifth to himself with Thurman Thomas and Joe Randle on deck.