TCU Preview: Both Teams Desperate for a Rebound Win

Just when the Cowboys seem ready to build off of a big road win, they lay a big fat egg at home. That’s been the story these last two weeks. While this Saturday’s road matchup at TCU doesn’t present the luster of winning big in Morgantown or at The Phog, the Cowboys may need this win more than any to date.

Here’s How To Tune In

• When: Saturday, Feb. 17 at 7 p.m.
• Where: Ed & Rae Schollmaier Arena, Fort Worth, Texas
• TV: ESPN2 (Lowell Galindo, Lance Blanks)
• Webcast: ESPN3.com or ESPN app
• Radio: Cowboy Radio Network (Dave Hunziker and John Holcomb)
• Satellite Radio: Sirius 138, XM 200 (TCU radio call)

The last time these teams faced off, the Cowboys got steamrolled 79-66 resulting in a season-worst three-game skid. Since then, the Pokes have alternated statement road wins with disappointing home losses. TCU, losers of three of their last four games, is fresh off of its own 82-66 drumming in Morgantown.

Both teams are tied for one step above the Big 12 basement and both are desperate for a win. Let’s see who might have the edge based on KenPom’s Four Factors.

Offense

The Horned Frogs come in as the fifth-ranked offensive in adjusted efficiency according to KenPom and rank 17th nationally scoring 84.2 points per game. The Frogs are led by Vladimir Brodziansky (15.6 points per game) but it was a balanced scoring attack that dispatched the Pokes in Stillwater. TCU had five scorers in double digits and one with 9 and shot 56 percent from the field and 67!! percent from 3.

OSU did force a TCU season-high 20 turnovers with resulted in 20 points from the Horned Frogs but gave up 22 points off of their own 16 TOs. Taking care of the ball will be paramount for the Pokes.

Defense

TCU ranks 136th in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom and is giving up 77 points per game. That’s good for 292nd nationally and ahead of only OU among Big 12 teams. They don’t force many turnovers and they let teams get hot often. TCU is 288th in opponent field goal percentage and 327th in allowed 3-point percentage.

So this should be a nice get-right game for OSU, right? Well, maybe not.

Keep an Eye On: TCU’s Zone

TCU may be far from a stingy defense but the zone they play is something that’s given the Cowboys fits. During their 79-66 win in Stillwater, the Frogs held OSU to just 20 points in the paint to their own 42 and 12 points on layups to the visiting team’s 36!

OSU did shoot the 3 at a decent clip (8 of 14) but settling for zone-gifted 3s is a recipe for disaster for the Cowboys. When OSU has been able to have success from beyond the arc, a la KU and WVU, it’s come much differently.

Against those teams, the Cowboys were able to get points off of turnovers and speed things up. A transition 3 by Jeffrey Carroll or Kendall Smith before the defense can get set is a much better look for the half-court challenge Pokes. And secondly (and more

Key for OSU: Rebound

Oklahoma State, normally a solid rebounding team (especially on the offensive glass), turned in one of its worst performances of the year against TCU in Stillwater. In fact, their 23 total boards was better than only the 22 OSU grabbed against Wichita State. And the six offensive boards was the lowest total since that same game against the Shockers.

Outlook

KenPom gives the Cowboys just a 22-percent chance of coming home with the victory. But if recent history has taught us anything, that may bode well for OSU. The Cowboys are going to have to find a way to get good looks on offense. Defensively, it just comes don’t to effort.

If the Cowboys’ effort looks anything like it did in the first half against K-State, their Big 12 road streak is in jeopardy.